Patrick Alexander - Bank Publications

• June 30, 2023

  Linking the chains

  

  Patrick Alexander, Chris D'Souza, Yuko Imura, Lena Suchanek

  The things we buy come out of complex production chains that span the globe.

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration

• Foreign Exchange Interventions: The Long and the Short of It

  Staff Working Paper 2022-25 Patrick Alexander, Sami Alpanda, Serdar Kabaca

  This paper studies the effects of foreign exchange (FX) interventions in a two-region model where governments issue both short- and long-term bonds. We find that the term premium channel dominates the trade balance channel in our calibrated model. As a result, the conventional beggar-thy-neighbor effects of interventions are overturned.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Foreign reserves management, International financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F33, F4, F41

• Exports and the Exchange Rate: A General Equilibrium Perspective

  Staff Working Paper 2022-18 Patrick Alexander, Abeer Reza

  How do a country’s exports change when its currency depreciates? Does it matter which forces drive the exchange rate deprecation in the first place? We find that this relationship varies greatly depending on what drives exchange rate movements, and we conclude that the direct relationship between the exchange rate and exports is weak for Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, International topics, Monetary policy transmission, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, F33, F4, F41

• Exchange Rates, Retailers, and Importing: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence

  Staff Working Paper 2019-34 Alex Chernoff, Patrick Alexander

  We develop a model with firm heterogeneity in importing and cross-border shopping among consumers. Exchange-rate appreciations lower the cost of imported goods, but also lead to more cross-border shopping; hence, the net impact on aggregate retail prices and sales is ambiguous.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics, Service sector JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, L, L8, L81

• Responding to the First Era of Globalization: Canadian Trade Policy, 1870–1913

  Staff Working Paper 2018-42 Ian Keay, Patrick Alexander

  In this paper we document Canada’s trade policy response to late-nineteenth- and earlytwentieth-century globalization. We link newly digitized annual product-specific data on the value of Canadian imports and duties paid from 1870–1913 to establishment-specific production and location information drawn from the manuscripts of the 1871 industrial census.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F4, F42, F6, F60, N, N7, N71

• Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014–2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2018-13 Patrick Alexander, Louis Poirier

  The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy is a topic of considerable debate. In this paper, we examine the response of U.S. consumers to the 2014–2015 negative oil price shock using representative survey data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, Q, Q4, Q43

• The Welfare Effects of Protection: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Canada’s National Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2017-18 Patrick Alexander, Ian Keay

  In this paper, we study the impact of Canada’s adoption of protectionist trade policy in 1879 on Canadian welfare. Under the National Policy the Canadian average weighted tariff increased from 14% to 21%. The conventional view is that this was a distortionary policy that negatively affected Canadian welfare.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F4, F42, F6, F60, N, N7, N71

• Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade

  Staff Working Paper 2017-17 Patrick Alexander

  Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F14, F6, F60

• Assessing Global Potential Output Growth

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-3 Patrick Alexander, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Patrick Kirby, Louis Poirier, Sri Thanabalasingam, Kristina Hess

  This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

• An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx

  We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F17