Marc-André Gosselin - Latest
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Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting
The workhorse DSGE model used for monetary policy evaluation is designed to capture business cycle fluctuations in an optimization-based format. It is commonplace to log-linearize models and express them with variables in deviation-from-steady-state format. -
Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting
The inflation targeting (IT) regime is 17 years old. With practice of IT now in more than 21 countries, there is enough evidence gathered to take stock of the IT experience. In this paper, we analyze the inflation record of IT central banks. -
An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia
Over the past few years, the ability of the United States to finance its current account deficit has been facilitated by massive purchases of U.S. -
Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine
In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector. -
Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépenses des ménages américains
Traditional structural models cannot distinguish whether changes in activity are a function of altered expectations today or lagged responses to past plans. Polynomial-adjustment-cost (PAC) models remove this ambiguity by explicitly separating observed dynamic behaviour into movements that have been induced by changes in expectations, and responses to expectations, that have been delayed because of adjustment costs. -
An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP
The authors describe the principal results obtained from a new method applied to the estimation of potential U.S. GDP. -
The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States
This paper assesses the usefulness of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting aggregate consumer spending in the United States. -
Evaluating Factor Models: An Application to Forecasting Inflation in Canada
This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who have shown that it is quite promising for forecasting U.S. inflation.