Garima Vasishtha - Bank Publications

• Nowcasting BRIC+M in Real Time

  Staff Working Paper 2015-38 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Justin-Damien Guénette, Garima Vasishtha

  Emerging-market economies have become increasingly important in driving global GDP growth over the past 10 to 15 years. This has made timely and accurate assessment of current and future economic activity in emerging markets important for policy-makers not only in these countries but also in advanced economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, C5, C53, E, E3, E37

• What Drives Bank-Intermediated Trade Finance? Evidence from Cross-Country Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 2015-8 Jose Maria Serena, Garima Vasishtha

  Empirical work on the underlying causes of the recent dislocations in bank-intermediated trade finance has been limited by the poor availability of hard data. This paper analyzes the key determinants of bank-intermediated trade finance using a novel data set covering ten banking jurisdictions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F19

• The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies

  Staff Working Paper 2014-53 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Garima Vasishtha

  The Federal Reserve’s path for withdrawal of monetary stimulus and eventually increasing interest rates could have substantial repercussions for capital flows to emerging-market economies (EMEs).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, F, F3, F33, F4, F42
• November 13, 2014

  Spillover Effects of Quantitative Easing on Emerging-Market Economies

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 Robert Lavigne, Subrata Sarker, Garima Vasishtha

  While quantitative easing (QE) in the United States likely increased capital flows to emerging-market economies (EMEs), putting upward pressure on asset prices and exchange rates, diverging fundamentals between advanced economies and EMEs were also important drivers. Evidence suggests that the benefits of QE to EMEs, in higher global demand and increased confidence, appear to outweigh the costs. When advanced economies begin to normalize monetary policy, the best defence for EMEs against any potential instability is likely to be further strengthening of their macroeconomic and financial policy frameworks.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F32, F4, F41, F42

• Growth in Emerging Market Economies and the Commodity Boom of 2003–2008: Evidence from Growth Forecast Revisions

  Staff Working Paper 2012-8 Elif Arbatli, Garima Vasishtha

  Demand for industrial raw materials from emerging economies, particularly emerging Asia, is widely believed to have fueled the surge in oil and industrial commodity prices during 2002-2008. The paper first presents a simple storage model in which commodity prices respond to market participant’s changing expectations of the future macroeconomic environment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43

• The Impact of the Global Business Cycle on Small Open Economies: A FAVAR Approach for Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2011-2 Garima Vasishtha, Philipp Maier

  Building on the growing evidence on the importance of large data sets for empirical macroeconomic modeling, we use a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model with more than 260 series for 20 OECD countries to analyze how global developments affect the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F4, F41
• November 11, 2009

  The Evolution of Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2009-2010 Lena Suchanek, Garima Vasishtha

  Many emerging-market economies (EMEs) have significantly improved their macroeconomic fundamentals and undergone structural reforms since the Asian crisis. These developments have enhanced the composition of capital flows to EMEs through an improved debt structure, a larger share of capital flows as foreign direct investment, and greater access to international debt markets for corporations in EMEs. Structural changes in the global financial landscape have also increased capital flows, bringing economic and financial benefits to EMEs. During the recent financial crisis, however, the opening up of capital accounts and increased financial and trade linkages left many countries vulnerable to external disruptions. Countries with sound fundamentals have weathered the crisis relatively well. Policy-makers in EMEs need to implement policies that support capital flows and ensure that controls imposed to deal with detrimental outflows during periods of stress or rapid inflows are only temporary.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Development economics, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies

• Assessing the Implementation of the IMF's 2007 Surveillance Decision

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-6 Robert Lavigne, Garima Vasishtha

  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently adopted the "2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance Over Members' Policies," a landmark reform that modernizes the general principles of IMF surveillance. However, support for the reform was not unanimous, and doubts have been expressed about how the Decision would be applied in practice. The authors assess the first year […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33
• December 21, 2008

  Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drove the Compression in Emerging- Market Spreads?

  Financial System Review - December 2008 Philipp Maier, Garima Vasishtha

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles

• Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads?

  Staff Working Paper 2008-25 Philipp Maier, Garima Vasishtha

  Since 2002, spreads on emerging market sovereign debt have fallen to historical lows. Given the close links between sovereign spreads, capital flows to emerging markets, and economic growth, understanding the factors driving these spreads is very important. We address this issue in two stages.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F34, G, G1, G12, G15