E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T08:56:44+00:00Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/12/staff-working-paper-2022-50/
We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. Our model can generate more sizable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model when inflation is high.2022-12-13T10:42:51+00:00enUnderstanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics2022-12-13Business fluctuations and cyclesCentral bank researchCoronavirus disease (COVID-19)Economic modelsInflation and pricesInflation: costs and benefitsMonetary policyMonetary policy implementationStaff Working Paper 2022-50https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/swp2022-50.pdfStaff Working Paper 2022-50Martin HardingJesper LindéMathias TrabandtDecember 2022EE3E30E31E32E37E4E44E5E52Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/09/staff-analytical-note-2022-13/
A low level of the neutral rate of interest increases the likelihood that a central bank’s policy rate will reach its effective lower bound (ELB) in future economic downturns. In a low neutral rate environment, using an extended monetary policy toolkit including forward guidance helps address the ELB challenge. Using the Bank’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, we assess the benefits and limitations of a state-contingent forward guidance implemented within a flexible inflation targeting framework.2022-09-26T11:27:58+00:00enHarnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance2022-09-26How well can large banks in Canada withstand a severe economic downturn?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/05/staff-analytical-note-2022-6/
We examine the potential impacts of a severe economic shock on the resilience of major banks in Canada. We find these banks would suffer significant financial losses but nevertheless remain resilient. This underscores the role well-capitalized banks and sound underwriting practices play in supporting economic activity in a downturn.2022-05-24T15:00:17+00:00enHow well can large banks in Canada withstand a severe economic downturn?2022-05-24Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/03/staff-working-paper-2022-10/
We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges.2022-03-04T11:15:37+00:00enMacroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning2022-03-04Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsPayment clearing and settlement systemsStaff Working Paper 2022-10https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/swp2022-10.pdfMacroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine LearningJames ChapmanAjit DesaiMarch 2022CC5C53C55EE3E37E4E42E5E52