E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T10:05:35+00:00Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/09/staff-analytical-note-2022-13/
A low level of the neutral rate of interest increases the likelihood that a central bank’s policy rate will reach its effective lower bound (ELB) in future economic downturns. In a low neutral rate environment, using an extended monetary policy toolkit including forward guidance helps address the ELB challenge. Using the Bank’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, we assess the benefits and limitations of a state-contingent forward guidance implemented within a flexible inflation targeting framework.2022-09-26T11:27:58+00:00enHarnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance2022-09-26Behavioral Learning Equilibria in New Keynesian Models
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/09/staff-working-paper-2022-42/
We introduce behavioral learning equilibria (BLE) into DSGE models with boundedly rational agents using simple but optimal first order autoregressive forecasting rules. The Smets-Wouters DSGE model with BLE is estimated and fits well with inflation survey expectations. As a policy application, we show that learning requires a lower degree of interest rate smoothing.2022-09-22T12:58:42+00:00enBehavioral Learning Equilibria in New Keynesian Models2022-09-22Business fluctuations and cyclesEconomic modelsInflation and pricesMonetary policyStaff Working Paper 2022-42https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/swp2022-42.pdfStaff Working Paper 2022-42Cars HommesKostas MavromatisTolga ÖzdenMei ZhuSeptember 2022CC1C11DD8D83D84EE3E6E62The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/09/staff-working-paper-2022-41/
When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and then explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions about how expectations are formed.2022-09-20T15:30:42+00:00enThe Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?2022-09-20Central bank researchEconomic modelsInflation and pricesMonetary policyMonetary policy and uncertaintyMonetary policy communicationsStaff Working Paper 2022-41https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/swp2022-41.pdfStaff Working Paper 2022-41Paul BeaudryThomas J. CarterAmartya LahiriSeptember 2022EE1E12E2E24E3E31E5E52E58E6E65Sectoral Uncertainty
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/09/staff-working-paper-2022-38/
We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary.2022-09-09T10:36:10+00:00enSectoral Uncertainty2022-09-09Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsMonetary policy and uncertaintyStaff Working Paper 2022-38https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/swp2022-38.pdfSectoral UncertaintyEfrem CastelnuovoKerem TuzcuogluLuis UzedaSeptember 2022CC5C51C55EE3E32E4E44