E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T07:13:29+00:00A Reference Guide for the Business Outlook Survey
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-discussion-paper-2020-15/
The Business Outlook Survey (BOS) has become an important part of monetary policy deliberations at the Bank of Canada and is also well known in Canadian policy and financial circles. This paper compiles more than 20 years of experience conducting the BOS and serves as a comprehensive reference manual.2020-12-23T10:13:15+00:00enA Reference Guide for the Business Outlook Survey2020-12-23Firm dynamicsRegional economic developmentsStaff Discussion Paper 2020-15https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/sdp2020-15.pdfStaff Discussion Paper 2020-15David AmiraultNaveen RaiLaurent MartinDecember 2020CC8C83DD2D22EE3E32Can the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-discussion-paper-2020-14/
We investigate whether questions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey can provide useful signals for the output gap.2020-12-11T10:19:40+00:00enCan the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap?2020-12-11Business fluctuations and cyclesCentral bank researchEconomic modelsMonetary policy and uncertaintyPotential outputStaff Discussion Paper 2020-14https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/sdp2020-14.pdfStaff Discussion Paper 2020-14Calista CheungLuke FrymireLise PichetteDecember 2020EE3The Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/11/staff-working-paper-2020-52/
We compare the determinants of consumer inflation expectations in the US and Canada by analyzing two current surveys. We find that Canadian consumers rely more on professional forecasts and the history of actual inflation when forming their expectations, while US consumers rely more on their own lagged expectations.2020-11-30T10:31:53+00:00enThe Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada2020-11-30Central bank researchEconometric and statistical methodsInflation and pricesInflation targetsStaff Working Paper 2020-52https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/swp2020-52.pdfThe Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and CanadaCharles BellemareRolande Kpekou TossouKevin MoranNovember 2020CC3C33DD8D83D84EE3E31Has the Inflation Process Changed? Selective Review of Recent Research on Inflation Dynamics
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/11/staff-discussion-paper-2020-11/
From 2011 to 2019, inflation in Canada and advanced economies usually registered below inflation targets, spurring the debate on whether the inflation process has changed. This paper highlights emerging questions that will influence the conduct of monetary policy in Canada in the near term.2020-11-26T13:00:49+00:00enHas the Inflation Process Changed? Selective Review of Recent Research on Inflation Dynamics2020-11-26Central bank researchInflation and pricesMonetary policyStaff Discussion Paper 2020-11https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/sdp2020-11.pdfOleksiy KryvtsovJames (Jim) C. MacGeeNovember 2020EE3E31E5E52How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/11/staff-working-paper-2020-47/
Should unemployment benefits be more generous during economic downturns? The optimal amount and duration of benefit payments ultimately depend on the demographic and wealth characteristics of benefit recipients.2020-11-06T13:30:52+00:00enHow Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle?2020-11-06Business fluctuations and cyclesFiscal policyLabour marketsStaff Working Paper 2020-47https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/swp2020-47.pdfStaff Working Paper 2020-47Serdar BirinciKurt SeeNovember 2020EE2E24E3E32JJ6J64J65Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/11/staff-working-paper-2020-45/
The goods and services sectors have experienced considerably different dynamics over the past three decades. Our goal in this paper is to understand how such contrasting behaviors at the sectoral level affect the aggregate level of trend inflation dynamics.2020-11-03T13:20:02+00:00enUnderstanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors2020-11-03Econometric and statistical methodsInflation and pricesMonetary policy transmissionStaff Working Paper 2020-45https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/swp2020-45.pdfStaff Working Paper 2020-45Yunjong EoLuis UzedaBenjamin WongNovember 2020CC1C11C3C32EE3E31E5E52Potential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/10/staff-analytical-note-2020-25/
After COVID-19, we expect potential output growth to stabilize around 1.2 percent. This is lower than the 2010–18 average growth of 1.8 percent. Relative to the April 2019 reassessment, the growth profile is revised down. Given the unknown course of the pandemic, uncertainty around these estimates is higher than in previous years.2020-10-22T07:33:34+00:00enPotential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment2020-10-22Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/09/staff-working-paper-2020-40/
How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations?2020-09-28T13:31:15+00:00enForward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach2020-09-28Central bank researchMonetary policyMonetary policy communicationsMonetary policy transmissionStaff Working Paper 2020-40https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/swp2020-40.pdfStaff Working Paper 2020-40Christopher S. SutherlandSeptember 2020DD8D83D84EE3E37E5E52E58Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/09/staff-working-paper-2020-38/
What is the time-varying impact of economic cycles on decisions to invest in human capital?2020-09-18T11:53:42+00:00enCyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models2020-09-18Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsStaff Working Paper 2020-38https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/swp2020-38.pdfCyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components ModelsBarbara SadabaSunčica VujičSofia MaierSeptember 2020CC3C32EE3II2JJ2What do high-frequency expenditure network data reveal about spending and inflation during COVID‑19?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/09/staff-analytical-note-2020-20/
The official consumer price index (CPI) inflation measure, based on a fixed basket set before the COVID 19 pandemic, may not fully reflect what consumers are currently experiencing. We partnered with Statistics Canada to construct a more representative index for the pandemic with weights based on real-time transaction and survey data.2020-09-11T10:00:15+00:00enWhat do high-frequency expenditure network data reveal about spending and inflation during COVID‑19?2020-09-11