Research - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-28T18:09:53+00:00Consumer Credit with Over-optimistic Borrowers
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-working-paper-2020-57/
When lenders cannot directly identify behavioural and rational borrowers, they use type scoring to track the likelihood of a borrower’s type. This leads to the partial pooling of borrowers, which results in rational borrowers subsidizing borrowing costs for behavioural borrowers. This, in turn, reduces the effectiveness of regulatory policies that target mistakes by behavioural borrowers.2020-12-30T08:51:56+00:00enConsumer Credit with Over-optimistic Borrowers2020-12-30Credit and credit aggregatesCredit risk managementFinancial system regulation and policiesStaff Analytical Note 2020-57https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/swp2020-57.pdfStaff Analytical Note 2020-57Florian ExlerIgor LivshitsJames (Jim) C. MacGeeMichèle TertiltDecember 2020EE2E21E4E49GG1G18KK3K35Losing Contact: The Impact of Contactless Payments on Cash Usage
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-working-paper-2020-56/
Contactless payment cards are a competitive alternative to cash. Using Canadian panel data from 2010 to 2017, this study investigates whether contactless credit cards are an important contributor to the decline in the transactional use of cash. 2020-12-29T09:32:24+00:00enLosing Contact: The Impact of Contactless Payments on Cash Usage2020-12-29Bank notesDigital currencies and fintechEconometric and statistical methodsFinancial servicesStaff Working Paper 2020-56https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/swp2020-56.pdfStaff Working Paper 2020-56Marie-Hélène FeltDecember 2020CC3C33DD1D12EE4E41Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-discussion-paper-2020-16/
This paper summarizes the literature on the performance of various extended monetary policy tools when conventional policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound. We highlight issues that may arise when these tools are used by central banks of small open economies.2020-12-23T11:29:51+00:00enImplementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature2020-12-23Monetary policyMonetary policy implementationMonetary policy transmissionStaff Discussion Paper 2020-16https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/sdp2020-16.pdfStaff Discussion Paper 2020-16Grahame JohnsonSharon KozickiRomanos PriftisLena SuchanekJonathan WitmerJing YangDecember 2020EE5E52E58E6E63A Reference Guide for the Business Outlook Survey
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-discussion-paper-2020-15/
The Business Outlook Survey (BOS) has become an important part of monetary policy deliberations at the Bank of Canada and is also well known in Canadian policy and financial circles. This paper compiles more than 20 years of experience conducting the BOS and serves as a comprehensive reference manual.2020-12-23T10:13:15+00:00enA Reference Guide for the Business Outlook Survey2020-12-23Firm dynamicsRegional economic developmentsStaff Discussion Paper 2020-15https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/sdp2020-15.pdfStaff Discussion Paper 2020-15David AmiraultNaveen RaiLaurent MartinDecember 2020CC8C83DD2D22EE3E32Strategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-working-paper-2020-55/
We look at the informational content of consensus pricing in opaque over-the-counter markets. We show that the availability of price data informs participants mainly about other participants’ valuations, rather than about the value of a financial security.2020-12-18T11:28:49+00:00enStrategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service2020-12-18Financial institutionsFinancial marketsMarket structure and pricingStaff Working Paper 2020-55https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/swp2020-55.pdfStrategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing ServiceLerby ErgunAndreas UthemannDecember 2020CC5C58DD5D53D8D83GG1G12G14Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-working-paper-2020-54/
We study the labour market and welfare effects of expanding unemployment insurance benefits and introducing payroll subsidies during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that both policies are complementary and are beneficial to different types of workers. Payroll subsidies preserve the employment of workers in highly productive jobs, while unemployment insurance replaces lost income for workers who experience inevitable job loss.2020-12-16T08:59:45+00:00enLabor Market Policies During an Epidemic2020-12-16Business fluctuations and cyclesCoronavirus disease (COVID-19)Fiscal policyLabour marketsStaff Working Paper 2020-54https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/swp2020-54.pdfStaff Working Paper 2020-54Serdar BirinciFatih KarahanYusuf MercanKurt SeeDecember 2020EE2E24E6E62JJ6J64Can the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-discussion-paper-2020-14/
We investigate whether questions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey can provide useful signals for the output gap.2020-12-11T10:19:40+00:00enCan the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap?2020-12-11Business fluctuations and cyclesCentral bank researchEconomic modelsMonetary policy and uncertaintyPotential outputStaff Discussion Paper 2020-14https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/sdp2020-14.pdfStaff Discussion Paper 2020-14Calista CheungLuke FrymireLise PichetteDecember 2020EE3Towards a HANK Model for Canada: Estimating a Canadian Income Process
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-discussion-paper-2020-13/
How might one simulate a million realistic income paths and compute their statistical moments in under a second? Using CUDA-based methods to estimate the Canadian earnings process, I find that the distribution of labour income growth is sharply peaked with heavy tails—similar to that in the United States.2020-12-11T09:42:20+00:00enTowards a HANK Model for Canada: Estimating a Canadian Income Process2020-12-11Economic modelsLabour marketsStaff Discussion Paper 2020-13https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/sdp2020-13.pdfTowards a HANK Model for Canada: Estimating a Canadian Income ProcessIskander KaribzhanovDecember 2020DD3D31EE2E24JJ3J31Safe Payments
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-working-paper-2020-53/
In a cashless economy, would the private sector invest in the optimal level of safety in a deposit-based payment system? In general, because of externalities, the answer is no. While the private sector could over- or under-invest in safety, the government can use taxes or subsidies to correct private incentives.2020-12-11T07:54:12+00:00enSafe Payments2020-12-11Central bank researchDigital currencies and fintechFinancial institutionsPayment clearing and settlement systemsStaff Working Paper 2020-53https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/swp2020-53.pdfSafe PaymentsJonathan ChiuMohammad DavoodalhosseiniJanet Hua JiangYu ZhuDecember 2020EE4E42E5E50GG2G212020 US Neutral Rate Assessment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-discussion-paper-2020-12/
This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.2020-12-01T13:47:11+00:00en2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment2020-12-01Economic modelsInterest ratesMonetary policyStaff Discussion Paper 2020-12https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/sdp2020-12.pdf2020 US Neutral Rate AssessmentJames BootsmaThomas J. CarterXin Scott ChenChristopher HajzlerArgyn ToktamyssovDecember 2020EE4E40E43E5E50E52E58FF4F41