E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-28T13:37:43+00:00Technological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/11/staff-discussion-paper-2019-11/
This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.”2019-11-14T09:57:40+00:00enTechnological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution2019-11-14Economic modelsFinancial stabilityMonetary policy and uncertaintyMonetary policy frameworkStaff Discussion Paper 2019-11https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/sdp2019-11.pdfTechnological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial RevolutionStephen S. PolozNovember 2019CC5EE3OO1O11O3O33What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/09/staff-working-paper-2019-38/
I use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with sign restrictions to provide conditional evidence on the behavior of the US external finance premium (EFP). The results indicate that the excess bond premium, a proxy for the EFP, reacts countercyclically to supply and monetary policy shocks and procyclically to demand shocks.2019-09-24T09:50:07+00:00enWhat Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions?2019-09-24Economic modelsFinancial marketsRecent economic and financial developmentsStaff Working Paper 2019-38https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/swp2019-38.pdfWhat Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions?Jelena ZivanovicSeptember 2019EE3E32E4E44A Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation in Canada: An Update
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/09/staff-discussion-paper-2019-9/
We provide an updated evaluation of the value of various measures of core inflation that could be used in the conduct of monetary policy. We find that the Bank of Canada’s current preferred measures of core inflation—CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common—continue to outperform alternative core measures across a range of criteria.2019-09-04T13:24:39+00:00enA Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation in Canada: An Update2019-09-04Inflation and pricesMonetary policy frameworkStaff Discussion Paper 2019-9https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/sdp2019-9.pdfA Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation in Canada: An UpdateHelen LaoCeciline SteynSeptember 2019EE3E31E5E52Bridging Canadian Business Lending and Market-Based Risk Measures
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/08/staff-analytical-note-2019-26/
Lending to business is central to economic growth because it supports investment by firms. Knowing how market participants view risk in the financial system can give the Bank of Canada information about future growth in business loans. In this note, we look at three market-based risk measures and find that sudden increases in the perception of risk in the Canadian banking system are associated with a weaker outlook for business loans and real gross domestic product.2019-08-19T10:58:40+00:00enBridging Canadian Business Lending and Market-Based Risk Measures2019-08-19Exploring Wage Phillips Curves in Advanced Economies
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/08/staff-discussion-paper-2019-8/
We investigate the extent to which excess supply (demand) in labour markets contributes to a lower (higher) growth rate of average nominal wages for workers. Using panel methods on data from 10 advanced economies for 1992–2018, we produce reduced-form estimates of a wage Phillips curve specification that is consistent with a New Keynesian framework.2019-08-12T11:58:34+00:00enExploring Wage Phillips Curves in Advanced Economies2019-08-12Inflation and pricesLabour marketsMonetary policyStaff Discussion Paper 2019-8https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/sdp2019-8.pdfExploring Wage Phillips Curves in Advanced EconomiesRose CunninghamVikram RaiKristina HessAugust 2019CC3C33EE3E31E32Lending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/07/staff-working-paper-2019-25/
We propose a macroeconomic model in which adverse selection in investment drives the amplification of macroeconomic fluctuations, in line with prominent roles played by the credit crunch and collapse of the asset-backed security market in the financial crisis.2019-07-26T12:33:44+00:00enLending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches2019-07-26Business fluctuations and cyclesCredit and credit aggregatesFinancial marketsFinancial stabilityInterest ratesProductivityStaff Working Paper 2019-25https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/swp2019-25.pdfLending Standards, Productivity and Credit CrunchesJonathan SwarbrickJuly 2019EE2E22E3E32E4E44GG0G01How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/07/staff-discussion-paper-2019-6/
We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature.2019-07-24T09:16:02+00:00enHow Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections2019-07-24Business fluctuations and cyclesInternational topicsStaff Discussion Paper 2019-6https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/sdp2019-6.pdfHow Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local ProjectionsOlivier GervaisJuly 2019CC2C22C5EE3E37QQ4Q43Central Bank Communication That Works: Lessons from Lab Experiments
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/06/staff-working-paper-2019-21/
We use controlled laboratory experiments to test the causal effects of central bank communication on economic expectations and to distinguish the underlying mechanisms of those effects. In an experiment where subjects learn to forecast economic variables, we find that central bank communication has a stabilizing effect on individual and aggregate outcomes and that the size of the effect varies with the type of communication.2019-06-13T09:11:50+00:00enCentral Bank Communication That Works: Lessons from Lab Experiments2019-06-13Monetary policy implementationMonetary policy transmissionStaff Working Paper 2019-21https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/swp2019-21.pdfCentral Bank Communication That Works: Lessons from Lab ExperimentsOleksiy KryvtsovLuba PetersenJune 2019CC9DD8D84EE3E5E52Assessing the Resilience of the Canadian Banking System
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/05/staff-analytical-note-2019-16/
The stability of the Canadian financial system, as well as its ability to support the Canadian economy, depends on the ability of financial institutions to absorb and manage major shocks. This is especially true for large banks, which perform services essential to the Canadian economy.2019-05-16T06:00:33+00:00enAssessing the Resilience of the Canadian Banking System2019-05-16Potential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/04/staff-analytical-note-2019-10/
Potential output is expected to grow on average at 1.8 per cent over 2019–21 and at 1.9 per cent in 2022. While the contribution of trend labour input to potential output growth is expected to decrease between 2019 and 2022, the contribution of trend labour productivity is projected to increase.2019-04-17T11:03:16+00:00enPotential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment2019-04-17