Econometric and statistical methods - Bank of Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rss-feeds/
Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T06:30:36+00:00Inference in Games Without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants’ Competition in Opening Hours
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/12/staff-working-paper-2018-60/
This paper relaxes the Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) assumption commonly imposed in empirical discrete choice games with incomplete information. Instead of assuming that players have unbiased/correct expectations, my model treats a player’s belief about the behavior of other players as an unrestricted unknown function. I study the joint identification of belief and payoff functions.2018-12-19T08:12:56+00:00enInference in Games Without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants’ Competition in Opening Hours2018-12-19Econometric and statistical methodsMarket structure and pricingStaff Working Paper 2018-60https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/swp2018-60.pdfInference in Games Without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants, Competition in Opening HoursErhao XieDecember 2018CC5C57LL1L13L8L852017 Methods-of-Payment Survey: Sample Calibration and Variance Estimation
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/12/technical-report-114/
This technical report describes sampling, weighting and variance estimation for the Bank of Canada’s 2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey. Under quota sampling, a raking ratio method is implemented to generate weights with both post-stratification and nonparametric nonresponse weight adjustments.2018-12-14T09:59:55+00:00en2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey: Sample Calibration and Variance Estimation2018-12-14Econometric and statistical methodsTechnical Report 114https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/tr114.pdfBond Funds and Fixed-Income Market Liquidity: A Stress-Testing ApproachHeng ChenMarie-Hélène FeltChristopher HenryDecember 2018CC8C81C83Fundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/12/staff-discussion-paper-2018-16/
Existing home sales’ share of Canada’s economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity across the Canadian provinces that is supported by fundamentals—namely, full-time employment, housing affordability and migration flows—to help look through the volatility.2018-12-10T12:04:49+00:00enFundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada2018-12-10Econometric and statistical methodsEconomic modelsHousingStaff Discussion Paper 2018-16https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/sdp2018-16.pdfFundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in CanadaTaylor WebleyDecember 2018CC2C22C23EE2E27RR2R21GDP by Industry in Real Time: Are Revisions Well Behaved?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/12/staff-analytical-note-2018-40/
The monthly data for real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry are used extensively in real time both to ground the Bank of Canada’s monitoring of economic activity and in the Bank’s nowcasting tools, making these data one of the most important high-frequency time series for Canadian nowcasting.2018-12-06T12:18:19+00:00enGDP by Industry in Real Time: Are Revisions Well Behaved?2018-12-06The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/staff-working-paper-2018-56/
How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false.2018-11-27T08:25:21+00:00enThe Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada2018-11-27Econometric and statistical methodsHousingInternational topicsLabour marketsRegional economic developmentsStaff Working Paper 2018-56https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/swp2018-56.pdfThe Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in CanadaLutz KilianXiaoqing ZhouNovember 2018FF4F43QQ3Q33Q4Q43RR1R12R3R31Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/10/staff-working-paper-2018-52/
We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests.2018-10-31T11:58:14+00:00enEvaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts2018-10-31Econometric and statistical methodsEconomic modelsInflation targetsMonetary policyStaff Working Paper 2018-52https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/swp2018-52.pdfEvaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and ForecastsJulien ChampagneGuillaume Poulin-BellisleRodrigo SekkelNovember 2018CC3C32EE1E17E3E37Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/10/staff-analytical-note-2018-34/
In this note, I use two multivariate frequency filtering approaches to characterize the Canadian financial cycle by capturing fluctuations in the underlying variables with respect to a long-term trend. The first approach is a dynamically weighted composite, and the second is a stochastic cycle model.2018-10-26T12:28:48+00:00enCharacterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches2018-10-26The Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/10/staff-discussion-paper-2018-11/
The size of China’s financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what the size and direction of China’s overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows.2018-10-03T08:17:42+00:00enThe Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows2018-10-03Balance of payments and componentsEconometric and statistical methodsInternational topicsStaff Discussion Paper 2018-11https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/sdp2018-11.pdfThe Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio OutflowsRose CunninghamEden HatzviKun MoOctober 2018CC2C23FF2F21F3F32GG1G15Disaggregating Household Sensitivity to Monetary Policy by Expenditure Category
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/10/staff-analytical-note-2018-32/
Because the Bank of Canada has started withdrawing monetary stimulus, monitoring the transmission of these changes to monetary policy will be important. Subcomponents of consumption and housing will likely respond differently to a monetary policy tightening, both in terms of the aggregate effect and timing.2018-10-02T11:19:36+00:00enDisaggregating Household Sensitivity to Monetary Policy by Expenditure Category2018-10-02Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/09/staff-working-paper-2018-50/
We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty.2018-09-27T08:32:17+00:00enMonetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails2018-09-27Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsMonetary policy and uncertaintyMonetary policy communicationsMonetary policy transmissionStaff Working Paper 2018-50https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/swp2018-50.pdfMonetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two TailsTatjana DahlhausTatevik SekhposyanSeptember 2018CC1C18C3C32EE0E02E4E43E5E52