Staff discussion papers - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-19T03:29:16+00:00Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/12/staff-discussion-paper-2018-18/
In 1991, Canada became the second country to adopt an inflation target as a central pillar of its monetary policy framework. The regime has proven much more successful than initially expected, both in achieving price stability and in stabilizing the real economy against a wide range of shocks.2018-12-18T14:08:33+00:00enCredibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada2018-12-18CredibilityInflation targetsMonetary policyMonetary policy frameworkStaff Discussion Paper 2018-18https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/sdp2018-18.pdfCredibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in CanadaThomas J. CarterRhys R. MendesLawrence L. SchembriDecember 2018EE5E52E58E6E612017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/12/staff-discussion-paper-2018-17/
Cash use is declining while contactless and mobile payments are on the rise.2018-12-14T08:44:01+00:00en2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report2018-12-14Bank notesDigital currencies and fintechFinancial servicesStaff Discussion Paper 2018-17https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/sdp2018-17.pdf2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey ReportChristopher HenryKim HuynhAngelika WelteDecember 2018DD8D83EE4E41Fundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/12/staff-discussion-paper-2018-16/
Existing home sales’ share of Canada’s economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity across the Canadian provinces that is supported by fundamentals—namely, full-time employment, housing affordability and migration flows—to help look through the volatility.2018-12-10T12:04:49+00:00enFundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada2018-12-10Econometric and statistical methodsEconomic modelsHousingStaff Discussion Paper 2018-16https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/sdp2018-16.pdfFundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in CanadaTaylor WebleyDecember 2018CC2C22C23EE2E27RR2R21Alternative Futures for Government of Canada Debt Management
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/12/staff-discussion-paper-2018-15/
This paper presents four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada’s debt without increasing the debt’s risk profile. We argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds and thus lowering their cost at issuance.2018-12-06T14:49:48+00:00enAlternative Futures for Government of Canada Debt Management2018-12-06Debt managementFinancial marketsMarket structure and pricingStaff Discussion Paper 2018-15https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/sdp2018-15.pdfAlternative Futures for Government of Canada Debt ManagementCorey GarriottSophie LefebvreGuillaume NolinFrancisco RivadeneyraAdrian WaltonDecember 2018GG1G12G2G24HH6H63An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/staff-discussion-paper-2018-14/
In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to help refine our estimates.2018-11-23T09:53:57+00:00enAn Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework2018-11-23Economic modelsPotential outputStaff Discussion Paper 2018-14https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SDP2018-14.pdfAn Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space FrameworkLise PichetteMaria BernierMarie-Noëlle RobitailleNovember 2018CC5EE0E5Assessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-Market Economies
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/10/staff-discussion-paper-2018-13/
This paper introduces a new tool to monitor economic and financial vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies. We obtain vulnerability indexes for several early warning indicators covering 26 emerging markets from 1990 to 2017 and use them to monitor the evolution of vulnerabilities before, during and after an economic or financial crisis.2018-10-30T11:19:30+00:00enAssessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-Market Economies2018-10-30International topicsMonetary and financial indicatorsRecent economic and financial developmentsStaff Discussion Paper 2018-13https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/SDP2018-13.pdfAssessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-Market EconomiesTatjana DahlhausAlexander LamOctober 2018CC8C82FF3F34GG0G01G1G15Is a Cashless Society Problematic?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/10/staff-discussion-paper-2018-12/
The use of bank notes in Canada for payments has declined consistently for some time, and similar trends are evident in other countries. This has led some observers to predict a cashless society in the future.2018-10-15T15:33:30+00:00enIs a Cashless Society Problematic?2018-10-15Bank notesDigital currencies and fintechFinancial servicesPayment clearing and settlement systemsStaff Discussion Paper 2018-12https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/sdp2018-12.pdfIs a Cashless Society Problematic?Walter EngertBen FungScott HendryOctober 2018EE4E41E42E5The Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/10/staff-discussion-paper-2018-11/
The size of China’s financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what the size and direction of China’s overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows.2018-10-03T08:17:42+00:00enThe Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows2018-10-03Balance of payments and componentsEconometric and statistical methodsInternational topicsStaff Discussion Paper 2018-11https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/sdp2018-11.pdfThe Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio OutflowsRose CunninghamEden HatzviKun MoOctober 2018CC2C23FF2F21F3F32GG1G15Government of Canada Fixed-Income Market Ecology
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/09/staff-discussion-paper-2018-10/
This discussion paper is the third in the Financial Markets Department’s series on the structure of Canadian financial markets. These papers are called “ecologies” because they study the interactions among market participants, infrastructures, regulations and the terms of the traded contract itself.2018-09-20T11:25:52+00:00enGovernment of Canada Fixed-Income Market Ecology2018-09-20Debt managementFinancial institutionsFinancial marketsFinancial servicesStaff Discussion Paper 2018-10https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/sdp2018-10.pdfGovernment of Canada Fixed-Income Market EcologyLéanne Berger-SoucyCorey GarriottAndré UscheSeptember 2018GG1G10G2G20HH6H63Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/08/staff-discussion-paper-2018-9/
This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components.2018-08-16T10:19:35+00:00enNowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment2018-08-16Econometric and statistical methodsStaff Discussion Paper 2018-9https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/sdp2018-9.pdfNowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain EnvironmentTony ChernisRodrigo SekkelAugust 2018CC5C53EE3E37E5E52