Research - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T11:34:17+00:00The Trade War in Numbers
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/staff-working-paper-2018-57/
We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to isolate and quantify the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes on the United States and the global economy.2018-11-28T14:26:20+00:00enThe Trade War in Numbers2018-11-28Recent economic and financial developmentsTrade integrationStaff Working Paper 2018-57https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/swp2018-57.pdfThe Trade War in NumbersKaryne B. CharbonneauAnthony LandryNovember 2018FF1F11F13F14F15F5F50F6F62F68The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/staff-working-paper-2018-56/
How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false.2018-11-27T08:25:21+00:00enThe Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada2018-11-27Econometric and statistical methodsHousingInternational topicsLabour marketsRegional economic developmentsStaff Working Paper 2018-56https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/swp2018-56.pdfThe Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in CanadaLutz KilianXiaoqing ZhouNovember 2018FF4F43QQ3Q33Q4Q43RR1R12R3R31Markets Look Beyond the Headline
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/staff-analytical-note-2018-37/
Many reports and analyses interpret the release of new economic data based on the headline surprise—for instance, total inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate. However, we find that headline news alone cannot adequately explain the responses of market prices to new information. Rather, market prices react more strongly, on average, to non-headline news such as the composition of GDP growth, quality of jobs created and revisions to past data. Thus, tracking the impact of non-headline information released on the news day is crucial in analyzing how markets interpret and react to new economic data.2018-11-23T10:35:25+00:00enMarkets Look Beyond the Headline2018-11-23An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/staff-discussion-paper-2018-14/
In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to help refine our estimates.2018-11-23T09:53:57+00:00enAn Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework2018-11-23Economic modelsPotential outputStaff Discussion Paper 2018-14https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SDP2018-14.pdfAn Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space FrameworkLise PichetteMaria BernierMarie-Noëlle RobitailleNovember 2018CC5EE0E5Macroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/staff-working-paper-2018-55/
Can macroprudential foreign exchange (FX) regulations on banks reduce the financial and macroeconomic vulnerabilities created by borrowing in foreign currency? To evaluate the effectiveness and unintended consequences of macroprudential FX regulations, we develop a parsimonious model of bank and market lending in domestic and foreign currency and derive four predictions.2018-11-15T09:23:24+00:00enMacroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability?2018-11-15Exchange ratesFinancial institutionsFinancial system regulation and policiesInternational financial marketsStaff Working Paper 2018-55https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/swp2018-55.pdfMacroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability?Toni AhnertKristin ForbesChristian FriedrichDennis ReinhardtNovember 2018FF3F32F34GG1G15G2G21G28Modelling the Macrofinancial Effects of a House Price Correction in Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/staff-analytical-note-2018-36/
We use a suite of risk-assessment models to examine the possible impact of a hypothetical house price correction, centred in the Toronto and Vancouver areas. We also assume financial stress significantly amplifies the macroeconomic impact of the house price decline.2018-11-14T09:00:37+00:00enModelling the Macrofinancial Effects of a House Price Correction in Canada2018-11-14The Impact of Recent Policy Changes on the Canadian Mortgage Market
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/staff-analytical-note-2018-35/
Recent policy changes are having a clear impact on the mortgage market. The number of new, highly indebted borrowers has fallen, and overall mortgage activity has slowed significantly.2018-11-14T08:00:05+00:00enThe Impact of Recent Policy Changes on the Canadian Mortgage Market2018-11-14The Framework for Risk Identification and Assessment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/technical-report-113/
Risk assessment models are an important component of the Bank’s analytical tool kit for assessing the resilience of the financial system. We describe the Framework for Risk Identification and Assessment (FRIDA), a suite of models developed at the Bank of Canada to quantify the impact of financial stability risks to the broader economy and a range of financial system participants (households, businesses and banks).2018-11-13T11:51:05+00:00enThe Framework for Risk Identification and Assessment2018-11-13Economic modelsFinancial institutionsFinancial stabilityHousingTechnical Report 113https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/tr113.pdfThe Framework for Risk Identification and AssessmentCameron MacDonaldVirginie TracletNovember 2018CC3C5C6C7DD1EE0E00E2E27E3E37E4E47GG0G2G21Calibrating the Magnitude of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer Using Market-Based Stress Tests
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/staff-working-paper-2018-54/
How much capital do banks need as a buffer to absorb severe shocks? By using historical stock market data, market-based stress tests help estimate the magnitude of capital buffers necessary to absorb severe but plausible shocks.2018-11-06T15:19:51+00:00enCalibrating the Magnitude of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer Using Market-Based Stress Tests2018-11-06Financial institutionsFinancial stabilityFinancial system regulation and policiesStaff Working Paper 2018-54https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/swp2018-54.pdfCalibrating the Magnitude of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer Using Market-Based Stress TestsMaarten van OordtNovember 2018GG1G10G2G21G28Non-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/staff-working-paper-2018-53/
This paper studies how the credit expansion policy pursued by the Chinese government in an effort to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis period affects bank–firm loan contracts and the macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and the probability of default.2018-11-01T13:08:43+00:00enNon-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China2018-11-01Credit and credit aggregatesFiscal policyInternational topicsStaff Working Paper 2018-53https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/swp2018-53.pdfNon-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in ChinaHuixin BiYongquan CaoWei DongNovember 2018EE4E44E6E62