Research - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-28T19:10:01+00:00Responding to the First Era of Globalization: Canadian Trade Policy, 1870–1913
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/08/staff-working-paper-2018-42/
In this paper we document Canada’s trade policy response to late-nineteenth- and earlytwentieth-century globalization. We link newly digitized annual product-specific data on the value of Canadian imports and duties paid from 1870–1913 to establishment-specific production and location information drawn from the manuscripts of the 1871 industrial census.2018-08-27T14:15:38+00:00enResponding to the First Era of Globalization: Canadian Trade Policy, 1870–19132018-08-27Economic modelsInternational topicsTrade integrationStaff Working Paper 2018-42https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/swp2018-42.pdfResponding to the First Era of Globalization: Canadian Trade Policy, 1870–1913Ian KeayPatrick AlexanderAugust 2018FF1F13F14F4F42F6F60NN7N71Weakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/08/staff-analytical-note-2018-28/
We use the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) to conduct demand- and supply-driven simulations, both of which deliver weakness in Canadian non-commodity exports relative to foreign activity in line with recent data.2018-08-27T10:33:50+00:00enWeakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors2018-08-27Characterizing Canada’s Export Sector by Industry: A Supply-Side Perspective
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/08/staff-analytical-note-2018-27/
This note examines supply-side trends in Canadian non-energy industries and their implications for export performance. Between 2002 and 2016, capital stocks and total labour input declined in many industries that export non-energy goods. These soft trends in the factors of production have likely contributed to the decline in non-energy exports in about half of the goods industries analyzed in this note.2018-08-27T10:23:09+00:00enCharacterizing Canada’s Export Sector by Industry: A Supply-Side Perspective2018-08-27Decomposing Canada’s Market Shares: An Update
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/08/staff-analytical-note-2018-26/
Building on the shift-share analysis of Barnett and Charbonneau (2015), this note decomposes Canada’s market shares in the United States, Europe and China for imports of non-energy goods into competitiveness, preference shifts and an interaction term. We find that, despite the depreciation of the dollar, Canada continued to lose market share over 2014–17 (around 0.4 percentage points lost per year on average over four years).2018-08-27T09:50:58+00:00enDecomposing Canada’s Market Shares: An Update2018-08-27What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/08/staff-analytical-note-2018-25/
This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses.2018-08-27T09:08:51+00:00enWhat Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth?2018-08-27Seeking Safety
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/08/staff-working-paper-2018-41/
The scale of safe assets suggests a structural demand for a safe wealth share beyond transaction and liquidity roles. We study how investors achieve a reference wealth level by combining self-insurance and contingent liquidation of investment. Intermediaries improve upon autarky, insuring investors with poor self-insurance and limiting liquidation.2018-08-27T06:00:03+00:00enSeeking Safety2018-08-27Financial institutionsStaff Working Paper 2018-41https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/swp2018-41.pdfSeeking SafetyToni AhnertEnrico PerottiAugust 2018GG2The Welfare Cost of Inflation Revisited: The Role of Financial Innovation and Household Heterogeneity
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/08/staff-working-paper-2018-40/
We document that, across households, the money consumption ratio increases with age and decreases with consumption, and that there has been a large increase in the money consumption ratio during the recent era of very low interest rates. We construct an overlapping generations (OLG) model of money holdings for transaction purposes subject to age (older households use more money), cohort (younger generations are exposed to better transaction technology), and time effects (nominal interest rates affect money holdings).2018-08-23T10:51:42+00:00enThe Welfare Cost of Inflation Revisited: The Role of Financial Innovation and Household Heterogeneity2018-08-23Inflation: costs and benefitsStaff Working Paper 2018-40https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/swp2018-40.pdfThe Welfare Cost of Inflation Revisited: The Role of Financial Innovation and Household HeterogeneityShutao CaoCésaire MehJosé-Víctor Ríos-RullYaz TerajimaAugust 2018EE2E21E4E41Sluggish Forecasts
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/08/staff-working-paper-2018-39/
Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts.2018-08-22T08:53:36+00:00enSluggish Forecasts2018-08-22Econometric and statistical methodsInflation and pricesStaff Working Paper 2018-39https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/swp2018-39.pdfSluggish ForecastsMonica JainAugust 2018EE3E31E37Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/08/staff-discussion-paper-2018-9/
This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components.2018-08-16T10:19:35+00:00enNowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment2018-08-16Econometric and statistical methodsStaff Discussion Paper 2018-9https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/sdp2018-9.pdfNowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain EnvironmentTony ChernisRodrigo SekkelAugust 2018CC5C53EE3E37E5E52