Research
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Cross-Border Bank Flows and Monetary Policy: Implications for Canada
Using the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Locational Banking Statistics data on bilateral bank claims from 1995 to 2014, we analyze the impact of monetary policy on cross-border bank flows. We find that monetary policy in a source country is an important determinant of cross-border bank flows. -
Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions
This paper proposes a novel asymptotic least-squares estimator of multi-country Gaussian dynamic term structure models that is easy to compute and asymptotically efficient, even when the number of countries is relatively large—a situation in which other recently proposed approaches lose their tractability. -
Has Liquidity in Canadian Government Bond Markets Deteriorated?
This note presents measures of liquidity used by the Bank of Canada to monitor market conditions and discusses recent trends in Government of Canada (GoC) fixed-income market liquidity. Our results indicate that the Bank’s measures have improved since the financial crisis. Furthermore, GoC market liquidity deteriorated following several stressful events: the euro crisis in 2011, the taper tantrum in 2013 and the oil price shock in 2015. In all three cases, the deterioration remained within historical norms and liquidity returned to normal levels afterwards.
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How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models
This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state. -
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence Against a “Greasing Effect”
The existence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) has often been used to justify a positive inflation target. It is traditionally assumed that positive inflation could “grease the wheels” of the labour market by putting downward pressure on real wages, easing labour market adjustments during a recession. -
Retrieving Implied Financial Networks from Bank Balance-Sheet and Market Data
In complex and interconnected banking systems, counterparty risk does not depend only on the risk of the immediate counterparty but also on the risk of others in the network of exposures. -
Information Contagion and Systemic Risk
We examine the effect of ex-post information contagion on the ex-ante level of systemic risk defined as the probability of joint bank default. -
Fintech: Is This Time Different? A Framework for Assessing Risks and Opportunities for Central Banks
We investigate the risks and opportunities to the mandates of central banks arising from fintech developments. -
Adoption of a New Payment Method: Theory and Experimental Evidence
We model the introduction of a new payment method, e.g., e-money, that competes with an existing payment method, e.g., cash. The new payment method involves relatively lower per-transaction costs for both buyers and sellers, but sellers must pay a fixed fee to accept the new payment method.