Recent economic and financial developments - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-28T15:13:06+00:00The Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on the Canadian Economy
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/12/staff-analytical-note-2017-26/
This note reviews the channels through which scheduled minimum wage increases over the coming years may affect Canadian economic activity and inflation and assesses their macroeconomic impacts. From reduced-form estimates of direct minimum wage pass-through, we find that consumer price index (CPI) inflation could be boosted by about 0.1 percentage point (pp) on average in 2018.2017-12-29T09:40:59+00:00enThe Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on the Canadian Economy2017-12-29Recent Evolution of Canada’s Credit-to-GDP Gap: Measurement and Interpretation
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/12/staff-analytical-note-2017-25/
Over the past several years, the Bank for International Settlements has noted that Canada’s credit-to-GDP gap has widened and is above thresholds indicating future banking stress.2017-12-18T11:08:43+00:00enRecent Evolution of Canada’s Credit-to-GDP Gap: Measurement and Interpretation2017-12-18Analysis of Household Vulnerabilities Using Loan-Level Mortgage Data
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/fsr-november2017-bilyk.pdf
This report examines detailed data on home mortgages to provide a better understanding of the vulnerabilities associated with the mortgage market. The proportion of low-ratio mortgages is growing, particularly in regions with strong house price growth. Moreover, these borrowers exhibit less flexibility to adverse shocks, since they have high debt levels relative to income and have taken mortgages with long amortization periods.2017-11-28T07:59:51+00:00enAnalysis of Household Vulnerabilities Using Loan-Level Mortgage Data2017-11-28Factors Behind the 2014 Oil Price Decline
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/boc-review-autumn2017-ellwanger.pdf
Oil prices have declined sharply over the past three years. While both supply and demand factors played a role in the large oil price decline of 2014, global supply growth seems to have been the predominant force. The most important drivers were likely the surprising growth of US shale oil production, the output decisions of the Organization of the Petro-leum Exporting Countries and the weaker-than-expected global growth that followed the 2009 global financial crisis.2017-11-16T12:32:30+00:00enFactors Behind the 2014 Oil Price Decline2017-11-16An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/boc-review-autumn2017-dorich.pdf
The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.2017-11-16T12:16:01+00:00enAn Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest2017-11-16Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/11/opening-statement-november-01-2017/
Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be back before you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published last week. When we were last here in April, we were celebrating the fact that we had upgraded our economic forecast following a […]2017-11-01T16:15:42+00:00Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce2017-11-01Stephen S. PolozGlobal Factors and Inflation in Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/10/staff-analytical-note-2017-17/
This note investigates whether the recent weakness in inflation in Canada can be related to global factors not included in the current staff analytical framework (domestic slack, movements in commodity prices and in the exchange rate). A global common factor for inflation among selected advanced economies appears to contain marginal information for Canadian inflation beyond what is found in movements in commodity prices and the exchange rate.2017-10-25T06:01:39+00:00enGlobal Factors and Inflation in Canada2017-10-25The Meaning of “Data Dependence”: An Economic Progress Report
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/09/meaning-data-dependence-economic-progress-report/
Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how unknowns in Canada’s inflation outlook have made the Bank’s monetary policy particularly data dependent.2017-09-27T11:45:14+00:00The Meaning of “Data Dependence”: An Economic Progress Report2017-09-27Stephen S. PolozA Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/09/staff-analytical-note-2017-12/
In this note, we present the Commodities Factor Model (CFM), a dynamic factor model for a large cross-section of energy and non-energy commodity prices. The model decomposes price changes in commodities into a common “global” component, a “block” component confined to subgroups of economically related commodities and an idiosyncratic price shock component.2017-09-25T17:44:19+00:00enA Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices2017-09-25How Canada’s International Trade is Changing with the Times
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/09/how-canada-international-trade-changing-with-times/
Deputy Governor Timothy Lane discusses the changing nature of international trade and the factors that are propelling it.2017-09-18T14:00:14+00:00How Canada’s International Trade is Changing with the Times2017-09-18Timothy Lane