E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T14:10:56+00:00Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/11/staff-analytical-note-2017-21/
This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly.2017-11-22T11:04:54+00:00enEvaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report2017-11-22A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/07/staff-analytical-note-2017-7/
Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.2017-07-04T08:05:54+00:00enA Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment2017-07-04A Three‐Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/06/staff-discussion-paper-2017-8/
This paper estimates a three‐frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months).2017-06-12T11:50:01+00:00enA Three‐Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth2017-06-12Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsRegional economic developmentsStaff Discussion Paper 2017-8https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/sdp2017-8.pdfA Three‐Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP GrowthTony ChernisGabriella VelascoCalista CheungJune 2017CC5C53EE3E32E37RR1R11April 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/04/staff-analytical-note-2017-5/
This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020.2017-04-12T10:02:21+00:00enApril 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada2017-04-12Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/04/staff-discussion-paper-2017-5/
Every quarter, the Bank of Canada conducts quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada, referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). A principal-component analysis conducted by Pichette and Rennison (2011) led to the development of the BOS indicator, which summarizes survey results and is used by the Bank as a gauge of overall business sentiment.2017-04-03T10:30:19+00:00enAssessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data2017-04-03Business fluctuations and cyclesRegional economic developmentsStaff Discussion Paper 2017‐5https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/sdp2017-5.pdfAssessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time DataLise PichetteMarie-Noëlle RobitailleApril 2017CC5C53C8C82EE3E37A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/02/staff-working-paper-2017-2/
This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data.2017-02-02T13:04:19+00:00enA Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth2017-02-02Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsStaff Working Paper 2017-2https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/swp2017-2.pdfA Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP GrowthTony ChernisRodrigo SekkelFebruary 2017CC3C32C38C5C53EE3E37