Staff analytical notes - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-28T13:03:31+00:00Comparing Forward Guidance and Neo-Fisherianism as Strategies for Escaping Liquidity Traps
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/12/staff-analytical-note-2016-16/
What path should policy-makers select for the nominal rate when faced with a liquidity trap during which the effective lower bound binds?2016-12-08T10:39:29+00:00enComparing Forward Guidance and Neo-Fisherianism as Strategies for Escaping Liquidity Traps2016-12-08The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/11/staff-analytical-note-2016-15/
In this analytical note we show that the share of the systematic variations in the Canadian dollar has risen significantly in the past two decades. Systematic variations in the exchange rate are shared with other currencies. This parallels the equity market, where variations in the price of a given stock are shared with variations in the prices of other stocks.2016-11-21T09:37:36+00:00enThe Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I2016-11-21A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/09/staff-analytical-note-2016-14/
Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation.2016-09-22T14:53:44+00:00enA Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics2016-09-22The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/09/staff-analytical-note-2016-13/
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.2016-09-22T09:46:56+00:00enThe Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye2016-09-22Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/08/staff-analytical-note-2016-12/
During the period of 2008 to 2012, the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance were tightened on four occasions. In this note, we estimate the effects through a simple econometric exercise using a vector error-correction model (VECM).2016-08-22T14:21:46+00:00enAssessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada2016-08-22Low for Longer? Why the Global Oil Market in 2014 Is Not Like 1986
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/07/staff-analytical-note-2016-11/
In the second half of 2014, oil prices experienced a sharp decline, falling more than 50 per cent between June 2014 and January 2015. A cursory glance at this oil price crash suggests similarities to developments in 1986, when the price of oil declined by more than 50 per cent, initiating an episode of relatively low oil prices that lasted for more than a decade.2016-07-22T10:22:18+00:00enLow for Longer? Why the Global Oil Market in 2014 Is Not Like 19862016-07-22The Case of Serial Disappointment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/07/staff-analytical-note-2016-10/
Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.2016-07-22T10:07:29+00:00enThe Case of Serial Disappointment2016-07-22The US Labour Market: How Much Slack Remains?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/07/staff-analytical-note-2016-9/
Despite the US unemployment rate being close to estimates of the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), measures of underemployment remain elevated, which could be an indication of remaining labour market slack. The shares of involuntary part-time workers and long-term unemployment are high relative to the current stage of the business cycle, suggesting available labour inputs are being underutilized.2016-07-19T10:12:07+00:00enThe US Labour Market: How Much Slack Remains?2016-07-19Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/07/staff-analytical-note-2016-8/
This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy.2016-07-18T13:47:04+00:00enCrude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models2016-07-18Ce que révèle une analyse sectorielle des dynamiques récentes de l’inflation au Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/07/staff-analytical-note-2016-7/
Decomposing total inflation in Canada as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) into its key macroeconomic factors, as presented in the most recent Monetary Policy Report, is an interesting exercise that shows how the exchange rate pass-through, commodity prices and the output gap have influenced the evolution of the total inflation rate over time. This aggregate approach, however, may mask important sectoral changes.2016-07-13T10:01:27+00:00enCe que révèle une analyse sectorielle des dynamiques récentes de l’inflation au Canada2016-07-13