E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T01:39:03+00:00Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/08/working-paper-2013-28/
The U.S. Energy Information Administration regularly publishes short-term forecasts of the price of crude oil.2013-08-20T09:22:18+00:00enForecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach2013-08-20Econometric and statistical methodsInternational topicsWorking Paper 2013-28https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/wp2013-28.pdfForecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination ApproachChristiane BaumeisterLutz KilianAugust 2013CC5C53EE3E32QQ4Q43CSI: A Model for Tracking Short-Term Growth in Canadian Real GDP
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/boc-review-summer13-binette.pdf
Canada’s Short-Term Indicator (CSI) is a new model that exploits the information content of 32 indicators to produce daily updates to forecasts of quarterly real GDP growth. The model is a data-intensive, judgment-free approach to short-term forecasting. While CSI’s forecasts at the start of the quarter are not very accurate, the model’s accuracy increases appreciably as more information becomes available. CSI is the latest addition to a wide range of models and information sources that the Bank of Canada uses, combined with expert judgment, to produce its short-term forecasts.2013-08-15T08:57:04+00:00enCSI: A Model for Tracking Short-Term Growth in Canadian Real GDP2013-08-15The Accuracy of Short-Term Forecast Combinations
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/boc-review-summer13-granziera.pdf
This article examines whether combining forecasts of real GDP from different models can improve forecast accuracy and considers which model-combination methods provide the best performance. In line with previous literature, the authors find that combining forecasts generally improves forecast accuracy relative to various benchmarks. Unlike several previous studies, however, they find that, rather than assigning equal weights to each model, unequal weighting based on the past forecast performance of models tends to improve accuracy when forecasts across models are substantially different.2013-08-15T08:53:24+00:00enThe Accuracy of Short-Term Forecast Combinations2013-08-15Monitoring Short-Term Economic Developments in Foreign Economies
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/boc-review-summer13-barnett.pdf
The Bank of Canada uses several short-term forecasting models for the monitoring of key foreign economies - the United States, the euro area, Japan and China. The design of the forecasting models used for each region is influenced by the level of detail required, as well as the timeliness and volatility of data. Forecasts from different models are typically combined to mitigate model uncertainty, and judgment is applied to the model forecasts to incorporate information that is not directly reflected in the most recent indicators.2013-08-15T08:49:02+00:00enMonitoring Short-Term Economic Developments in Foreign Economies2013-08-15