E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T12:44:56+00:00'Lean' versus 'Rich' Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/12/working-paper-2010-37/
We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and ‘data-lean' environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus data from national economies (pseudo-real time data).2010-12-23T12:55:41+00:00en'Lean' versus 'Rich' Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession2010-12-23Econometric and statistical methodsInternational topicsWorking Paper 2010-37https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/wp10-37.pdf‘Lean' versus ‘Rich' Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great RecessionMarco J. LombardiPhilipp MaierDecember 2010CC5C50C53EE3E37E4E47Nowcasting the Global Economy
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/09/discussion-paper-2010-12/
Forecasts of global economic activity and inflation are important inputs when conducting monetary policy in small open economies such as Canada. As part of the Bank of Canada's broad agenda to augment its short-term forecasting tools, the author constructs simple mixed-frequency forecasting equations for quarterly global output, imports, and inflation using the monthly global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).2010-09-17T12:28:59+00:00enNowcasting the Global Economy2010-09-17Economic modelsInternational topicsDiscussion paper 2010-12https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/dp10-12.pdfNowcasting the Global EconomyJames RossiterSeptember 2010EE3E37FF4F47Le pouvoir de prévision des indices PMI
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/04/discussion-paper-2010-3/
The forecast of world economic growth plays a key role in the conduct of Canadian monetary policy. In this context, the authors study the usefulness of the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) in predicting short-term real GDP growth in the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and China, as well as in the world economy.2010-04-18T13:40:01+00:00frLe pouvoir de prévision des indices PMI2010-04-18Business fluctuations and cyclesInternational topicsDocument d'analyse 2010-3 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/dp10-3.pdfLe pouvoir de prévision des indices PMI Claudia GodboutJocelyn JacobApril 2010EE3E37FF4F47On the Advantages of Disaggregated Data: Insights from Forecasting the U.S. Economy in a Data-Rich Environment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/03/working-paper-2010-10/
The good forecasting performance of factor models has been well documented in the literature. While many studies focus on a very limited set of variables (typically GDP and inflation), this study evaluates forecasting performance at disaggregated levels to examine the source of the improved forecasting accuracy, relative to a simple autoregressive model. We use the latest revision of over 100 U.S. time series over the period 1974-2009 (monthly and quarterly data).2010-03-22T14:49:24+00:00enOn the Advantages of Disaggregated Data: Insights from Forecasting the U.S. Economy in a Data-Rich Environment2010-03-22Econometric and statistical methodsInternational topicsWorking Paper 2010-10https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp10-10.pdfOn the Advantages of Disaggregated Data: Insights from Forecasting the U.S. Economy in a Data-Rich EnvironmentNikita PerevalovPhilipp MaierMarch 2010CC5C50C53EE3E37E4E47Introducing the Bank of Canada's Projection Model for the Global Economy
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/03/technical-report-no99/
To complement its existing set of tools to analyze and forecast developments in the global economy, the Bank of Canada recently developed a version of the Global Projection Model (GPM) jointly with staff at the International Monetary Fund.2010-03-07T13:22:54+00:00enIntroducing the Bank of Canada's Projection Model for the Global Economy2010-03-07Business fluctuations and cyclesEconomic modelsInternational topicsTechnical Report 99 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/tr99.pdfIntroducing the Bank of Canada’s Projection Model for the Global EconomyJeannine BailliuPatrick BlagraveJames RossiterMarch 2010CC6C68EE2E27E3E37FF0F01