Monetary aggregates - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T14:07:51+00:00Recent developments in monetary aggregates and their implications
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/r962a.pdf
In 1995, the broad aggregate M2+ grew at an annual rate of 4.5 per cent—almost twice the rate recorded in 1994—as competition from mutual funds drew less money from personal savings deposits. An adjusted M2+ aggregate, which internalizes the effect of close substitutes such as CSBs and certain mutual funds, grew by only 3.4 per cent. Gross M1 grew by 8.2 per cent during the year, reflecting an increased demand for transactions balances as market interest rates declined and as banks offered more attractive rates of interest on corporate current account balances.
The robust growth of gross M1 in the second half of 1995 suggests a moderate expansion of economic activity in the first half of 1996, while moderate growth in the broad aggregates indicates a rate of monetary expansion consistent with continued low inflation. In this annual review of the monetary aggregates, the authors also introduce a new model, based on calculated deviations of M1 from its long-run demand, which suggests that inflation should remain just below the midpoint of the inflation-control target range over the next couple of years.1996-05-11T08:30:22+00:00enRecent developments in monetary aggregates and their implications1996-05-11A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/1996/04/working-paper-1996-5/
A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices.1996-04-01T15:11:56+00:00enA Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria1996-04-01Economic modelsMonetary aggregatesMonetary policy transmissionWorking Paper 1996-5 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp96-5.pdfA Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 DisequilibriaJoseph Atta-MensahWalter EngertScott HendryJamie ArmourApril 1996EE3E37E5E52