The workhorse DSGE model used for monetary policy evaluation is designed to capture business cycle fluctuations in an optimization-based format. It is commonplace to log-linearize models and express them with variables in deviation-from-steady-state format. Structural parameters are either calibrated, or estimated using data pre-filtered to extract trends. Such procedures treat past and future trends as [...]
Topics: Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methodsWe propose a new test for a multivariate parametric conditional distribution of a vector of variables yt given a conditional vector xt. The proposed test is shown to have an asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis, while being consistent for all fixed alternatives, and having non-trivial power against a sequence of local alternatives. Monte [...]
Topics: Econometric and statistical methodsA sequential Monte Carlo method for estimating GARCH models subject to an unknown number of structural breaks is proposed. Particle filtering techniques allow for fast and efficient updates of posterior quantities and forecasts in real time. The method conveniently deals with the path dependence problem that arises in these type of models. The performance of [...]
Topics: Econometric and statistical methods; Financial marketsCorporate bond spreads worldwide have widened markedly since the beginning of the credit crisis in 2007. This article examines default and liquidity risk–the main components of the corporate bond spread–for Canadian firms that issue bonds in the U.S. market, focusing in particular on their evolution during the credit crisis. They find that, during this period, the liquidity component increased more for speculative-grade bonds than it did for investment-grade bonds, consistent with a "flight-to-quality" phenomenon. An important implication of their results for policy-makers seeking to address problems in credit markets is that the liquidity risk in corporate spreads for investment and speculative bonds behaves differently than the default risk, especially during crisis episodes.
Topics: Econometric and statistical methods; Financial markets; Financial stabilityReal wage rigidities have recently been proposed as a way of building intrinsic persistence in inflation within the context of New Keynesian Phillips Curves. Using two recent illustrative structural models, we evaluate empirically the importance of real wage rigidities in the data and the extent to which such models provide useful information regarding price stickiness.
Topics: Econometric and statistical methods; Inflation and prices; Labour marketsWeak identification is likely to be prevalent in multi-equation macroeconomic models such as in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium setups. Identification difficulties cause the breakdown of standard asymptotic procedures, making inference unreliable.
Topics: Econometric and statistical methods; Inflation and pricesThe author constructs a formal analytic framework to simulate the impact of various economic shocks on the household debt-service ratio, using data from the Canadian Financial Monitor (CFM) survey. The impact of these shocks on individual households depends on the socio-economic characteristics of the latter. The framework also allows consideration of both symmetric and asymmetric [...]
Topics: Econometric and statistical methods; Financial stabilityThe author proposes a new test for financial contagion based on a non-parametric measure of the cross-market correlation. The test does not depend on the assumption that the data are drawn from a given probability distribution; therefore, it allows for maximal flexibility in fitting into the data.
Topics: Central bank research; Econometric and statistical methods; Financial stabilityA number of central banks publish their own business conditions survey based on non-random sampling methods. The results of these surveys influence monetary policy decisions and thus affect expectations in financial markets. To date, however, no one has computed the statistical accuracy of these surveys because their respective non-random sampling method renders this assessment non-trivial.
Topics: Central bank research; Econometric and statistical methods; Regional economic developmentsUsing identification-robust methods, the authors estimate and evaluate for Canada and the United States various classes of inflation equations based on generalized structural Calvo-type models. The models allow for different forms of frictions and vary in their assumptions regarding the type of price indexation adopted by firms. Point and confidence-set parameter estimates are obtained based [...]
Topics: Econometric and statistical methods; Inflation and pricesTreating imports as intermediate inputs to domestic production, the author adopts the translog function approach to model real gross domestic income (GDI) in Canada over the 1961–2006 period. She explores the role of price ratios, such as terms of trade and the real effective exchange rate, in explaining changes in real GDI, trade openness, trade [...]
Topics: Econometric and statistical methods; Productivity
