Following the recent financial crisis, major central banks have introduced several types of unconventional monetary policy measures, including liquidity and credit facilities, asset purchases and forward guidance. To date, these measures appear to have been successful. They restored market functioning, facilitated the transmission of monetary policy and supported economic activity. They have potential costs, however, including challenges related to the greatly expanded balance sheets of central banks and the eventual exit from these measures, as well as the vulnerabilities that can arise from prolonged monetary accommodation.
Topics: Central bank research; Financial markets; International topics; Monetary policy frameworkThe Bank of Canada’s annual economic conference, held in October 2012, brought together experts from across Canada and around the world to discuss key issues concerning financial intermediation and vulnerabilities. The conference covered such topics as household finances and their relationship to financial stability, as well as bank regulation, securitization and shadow banking.
Topics: Central bank research; Financial stability; Financial system regulation and policiesThe Bank of Canada’s annual conference, held in November 2011, brought together leading researchers from universities, central banks and other institutions from around the world. Divided into four sessions plus two keynote addresses, the conference covered such topics as the use of cash and other means of payment in retail transactions, large-value payments systems, and over-the-counter markets and central counterparties.
Topics: Bank notes; Central bank research; Financial system regulation and policies; Monetary policy implementation; Payment clearing and settlement systemsCentral banks play a pivotal role in well-functioning payments systems by providing liquidity via collateralized lending. This article discusses the role of collateral and haircut policy in central bank lending, as well as the distinguishing features of the central bank’s policy relative to private sector practices. It presents a model that explicitly incorporates the unique role of central banks in the payments system and argues that central banks must consider how their haircut policies affect the relative price and liquidity of assets, the market’s asset allocation, and the likelihood of participants to default. Furthermore, under extraordinary circumstances, there is a rationale for the central bank to temporarily reduce haircuts or broaden the list of eligible collateral to mitigate the shortage of liquidity in the market.
Topics: Central bank research; Financial stability; Payment clearing and settlement systemsAs part of their policy response to the financial crisis of 2007–09, central banks introduced numerous unprecedented monetary policy measures to provide monetary easing. This article defines and documents these measures, focusing on central bank asset purchases and their impact on central bank balance sheets. It then discusses the challenges of identifying the effects of these measures and explores possible exit strategies. The potential costs of these policies are also analyzed, as well as the broader implications for monetary policy frameworks.
Topics: Central bank research; Financial markets; International topics; Monetary policy frameworkIn this article, the authors review work done at the Bank of Canada and at other central banks with the relatively new application of network analysis to the study of payments systems. This approach allows researchers to study these systems as a whole, rather than at the participant level. Recent work on Canada’s Large Value Transfer System has revealed two communities of participants within the system. This work provides system overseers and financial-stability policy-makers with a new means of evaluating the systemic importance of individual participants and the connections between them.
Topics: Central bank research; Payment clearing and settlement systemsThe Bank of Canada’s annual conference, held in October 2010, brought together leading researchers from universities and central banks around the world. Divided into six sessions plus a keynote address and a panel discussion, the conference covered such topics as the effects of financial globalization on risk, liquidity, and asset prices; the causes of crises and their effects; and appropriate regulatory responses.
Topics: Central bank research; Financial markets; Financial stability; Financial system regulation and policiesTo investigate the extent to which the transparency of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy has improved, the authors examine empirically – over the period 30 October 2000 to 31 May 2007 – the reaction of Canadian financial markets to official Bank communications, and in particular their reaction to the recent inclusion of forward-looking policy-rate guidance in these communications.
Topics: Central bank research; Interest rates; Transmission of monetary policyWe present a model of central bank collateralized lending to study the optimal choice of the haircut policy. We show that a lending facility provides a bundle of two types of insurance: insurance against liquidity risk as well as insurance against downside risk of the collateral.
Topics: Central bank research; Financial services; Financial system regulation and policies; Monetary policy implementation; Payment clearing and settlement systemsStephen Murchison reviews the findings of recent Bank of Canada research on the relative merits of inflation targeting and price-level targeting (PLT) for a small open economy, such as Canada's, that is susceptible to large and persistent terms-of-trade shocks. These shocks have been identified as a potential threat to PLT, since central bankers have to induce large fluctuations in output if they are to unwind all pass-through to the price level. The balance of evidence suggests that PLT and inflation targeting, implemented through simple policy rules, are fairly similar in their ability to stabilize inflation, the output gap, and interest rates. The author shows that this conclusion is robust to the inclusion of several types of relative-price shocks, including shocks to the terms of trade. Research on the optimal price index under PLT is also discussed, and Murchison concludes that, conditional on adopting PLT, the overall CPI would represent close to an ideal index to target.
Topics: Central bank research; Inflation targets; Monetary policy frameworkAlthough the current inflation-targeting regime has served Canadians well, sound public policy demands the continuous exploration of possible improvements in the monetary policy framework. At the Bank of Canada's 2009 conference, distinguished scholars from academic institutions and monetary authorities around the world discussed two central questions regarding the design of monetary policy: (i) Would an inflation target lower than 2 per cent lead to better economic outcomes? And (ii) What are the costs and benefits of price-level targeting relative to inflation targeting? The conference agenda included work that shed new light on these two questions. Other work explored the causes of zero-bound episodes and the efficacy of potential policies.
Topics: Central bank research; Inflation targets; Monetary policy frameworkWhile a number of central banks publish their own business conditions indicators that rely on non-random sampling, knowledge about their statistical accuracy has been limited.
Topics: Business fluctuations and cycles; Central bank research; Regional economic developmentsThe ability to conduct financial transactions using bank notes is crucial to independent living. Yet this can pose significant challenges for individuals who are blind or partially sighted. This article discusses the Bank of Canada's efforts over the past 30 years to meet the accessibility needs of a specific subset of the population–Canadians living with blindness or vision loss. It also reports the findings of expert and user assessments of the suite of accessibility features on the current series of bank notes and shares plans for the next series.
Topics: Bank notes; Central bank researchThe author proposes a new test for financial contagion based on a non-parametric measure of the cross-market correlation. The test does not depend on the assumption that the data are drawn from a given probability distribution; therefore, it allows for maximal flexibility in fitting into the data.
Topics: Central bank research; Econometric and statistical methods; Financial stabilityIn 2006, the Bank initiated a research program exploring two alternatives to the current inflation-targeting framework: (i) lowering the inflation target and (ii) shifting to a price-level target. This article discusses progress to date, places the Bank's findings in the context of a broader literature, and identifies avenues for future research. Earlier literature and recent studies at the Bank suggest that an inflation target below two per cent is likely preferable to the status quo, though it is unclear how much lower policy-makers should aim and also how much Canadians would benefit from a shift. With regard to the price-level target, evidence is more mixed, with need for study concerning (i) the target's influence on contracting behaviour and inflation expectations; (ii) strategies for ensuring credibility in the commitment to price-level targeting; and (iii) the Canadian economy's vulnerability to shocks that the literature identifies as particularly detrimental to the target's performance.
Topics: Central bank research; Economic models; Inflation and prices; Inflation targets; Inflation: costs and benefits; Monetary policy frameworkOne of the most important arguments in favour of price stability is that unexpected inflation generates changes in the distribution of income and wealth among different economic agents. These redistributions occur because many loans are specified in fixed dollar terms and unexpected inflation redistributes wealth from creditors to debtors by reducing the real value of nominal assets and liabilities. This article quantifies the redistributional effects of unexpected inflation in Canada, providing comprehensive evidence of the nominal assets and liabilities of various economic sectors and household groups. A key finding is that the redistributional effects of unexpected inflation are large even with episodes of low inflation. The main winners are young, middle-income households who are major holders of fixed-rate mortgage debt and the government–inflation reduces the real burden of their debt. The losers are high-income households and middle-aged, middle-income households that hold long-term bonds and non-indexed pension wealth.
Topics: Central bank research; Inflation and prices; Inflation: costs and benefits; Sectoral balance sheetA number of central banks publish their own business conditions survey based on non-random sampling methods. The results of these surveys influence monetary policy decisions and thus affect expectations in financial markets. To date, however, no one has computed the statistical accuracy of these surveys because their respective non-random sampling method renders this assessment non-trivial.
Topics: Central bank research; Econometric and statistical methods; Regional economic developmentsCentral bankers from inflation-targeting and non-inflation-targeting countries around the world and several distinguished scholars assembled at the Bank of Canada in July 2008 to review the international experience in some detail. This article highlights topics covered in the special lectures and sessions, including how inflation targeting can manage external shocks, various ways in which monetary policy decisions are taken, and the issues of transparency and communications. It also reports on the discussion in the closing panel, which considered options for the future of inflation targeting.
Topics: Central bank research; Inflation targets; Monetary policy frameworkSchembri studies Canada's post-World War II experience in introducing a floating exchange rate, including its effects on the Canadian economy and its influence on the development of macroeconomic theory. In particular, Canada's flexible exchange rate and high degree of capital mobility with the United States provided an unprecedented experiment for macroeconomic policy. The successes and difficulties encountered by Canadian authorities in managing monetary and fiscal policy under this regime drew the interest of researchers at the International Monetary Fund and elsewhere and had a significant impact on the development of the Mundell-Fleming model, the path-breaking innovation in modern open-economy macroeconomics.
Topics: Central bank research; Exchange rate regimes; Monetary policy frameworkGosselin examines and reports on the various factors that contribute to successful inflation targeting. Using a panel of 21 inflation-targeting countries over the period 1990Q1-2007Q2, Gosselin finds that the ability of central banks to hit their targets varies considerably. Some of these differences can be explained by exchange rate fluctuations, fiscal deficits, and differences in financial development. Others are explained by differences in the targeting framework itself and the manner in which it is implemented.
Topics: Central bank research; Inflation targets; Monetary policy frameworkColetti and Lalonde compare inflation targeting and price-level targeting in the context of a small open economy subject to sizable terms-of-trade shocks. The authors summarize recent research that compares the ability of price-level targeting and inflation targeting to stabilize the macroeconomy when confronted with shocks similar to those experienced by Canada in recent years. Their preliminary results suggest that price-level targeting may represent a feasible alternative to traditional inflation targeting. Their article also provides insight into the direction of current research in this area at the Bank.
Topics: Central bank research; Inflation and prices; Monetary policy frameworkFor many years, the Bank of Canada successfully responded to occasional eruptions in counterfeiting by improving the security features on bank notes. The surge in counterfeiting that occurred while the Bank prepared to launch the Canadian Journey series, however, reflected increasingly rapid advances in computer technology that were changing the counterfeiting environment. The article describes these and other challenges that affected the new series and describes how the Bank developed a comprehensive new approach to its currency program and incorporated the valuable lessons it learned from these challenges. Designed to combat counterfeiting and meet the needs of the public, the new strategy includes increased research and development on new bank note security features, an intensified focus on retailer and public education, and a focus on law enforcement.
Topics: Bank notes; Central bank researchFreeman (1999) proposes a model in which discount window lending and open market operations have different effects. This is important because in most of the literature, these policies are indistinguishable.
Topics: Central bank research; Financial markets; Payment clearing and settlement systemsAllen and Engert report on recent research at the Bank of Canada on various aspects of efficiency in the Canadian banking industry. This research suggests that, overall, Canadian banks appear to be relatively efficient producers of financial services and they do not exercise monopoly or collusive-oligopoly power. The authors note the value of continuing to investigate opportunities to improve efficiency and competition in financial services in Canada.
Topics: Central bank research; Financial Institutions; Financial system regulation and policies
