Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey: data

Winter 2011-12

Note: Each quarter, the Business Outlook Survey results are based on interviews with senior management of about 100 firms. Since the responses to the questions are calculated as percentages, when the sample is not exactly 100 firms, or respondents do not answer all questions, the results are rounded. Therefore, in some cases, calculating a balance of opinion using the greater and lesser categories may differ slightly from the actual balance of opinion. Also, totals may not always add to 100%.
Chart 1
PAST SALES GROWTH
Over the past 12 months, the rate of increase in your firm’s sales volume (compared with the previous 12 months) was…
DateGreater (%)Less (%) Balance of Opinion
Q4 2011542529
Q3 2011532330
Q2 2011522824
Q1 2011603229
Q4 2010562630
Q3 2010553322
Q2 2010493118
Q1 20102265-43
Q4 20091970-51
Q3 20092265-43
Q2 20091769-52
Q1 20093048-18
Q4 20083055-25
Q3 20083537-2
Q2 200839327
Q1 200842339
Q4 2007492722
Q3 2007442718
Q2 2007433112
Q1 2007442618
Q4 2006453015
Q3 200640319
Q2 2006462818
Q1 2006492227
Q4 2005512032
Q3 2005462224
Q2 2005513120
Q1 2005552629
Q4 2004472819
Q3 2004503417
Q2 200442339
Q1 200442402
Q4 200339390
Q3 2003483810
Q2 20033738-1
Q1 200345378
Q4 200238308
Q3 2002473710
Q2 2002463314
Q1 20023651-14
Q4 20013650-14
Q3 20013444-10
Q2 20013841-3
Q1 2001533023
Q4 2000532428
Q3 2000601743
Q2 2000621448
Q1 2000511833
Q4 1999492623
Q3 1999572829
Q2 199944387
Q1 199941383
Q4 19983437-3
Q3 19983141-10

Chart 2
FUTURE SALES GROWTH
Over the next 12 months, the rate of increase in your firm’s sales volume (compared with the past 12 months) is expected to be…
DateGreater (%)Less (%)Balance of Opinion
Q4 20113741-4
Q3 201139336
Q2 2011492920
Q1 2011513813
Q4 2010512922
Q3 2010552629
Q2 2010532925
Q1 2010642044
Q4 2009702150
Q3 2009691653
Q2 2009612339
Q1 20093052-22
Q4 20082357-34
Q3 200837343
Q2 200837334
Q1 20083638-2
Q4 200738380
Q3 200735323
Q2 2007402812
Q1 2007412714
Q4 200634277
Q3 200634313
Q2 2006422616
Q1 200636333
Q4 2005412516
Q3 2005392514
Q2 2005452520
Q1 2005442420
Q4 200442348
Q3 2004482622
Q2 2004462124
Q1 2004462818
Q4 2003542232
Q3 2003482622
Q2 2003432914
Q1 2003472720
Q4 2002452817
Q3 2002443311
Q2 2002491930
Q1 2002572729
Q4 20013639-3
Q3 20013137-6
Q2 200134305
Q1 20014142-1
Q4 200036342
Q3 200036297
Q2 20002935-6
Q1 2000512131
Q4 1999581643
Q3 199941356
Q2 1999433014
Q1 1999492425
Q4 19983233-1
Q3 19982744-18

Chart 3
INVESTMENT IN MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT
Over the next 12 months, your firm’s investment spending on M&E (compared with the past 12 months) is expected to be…
DateHigher (%)Lower (%)Balance of Opinion
Q4 2011401921
Q3 2011411922
Q2 2011481830
Q1 2011462224
Q4 2010441529
Q3 2010461036
Q2 2010382612
Q1 2010432122
Q4 2009422517
Q3 200933303
Q2 20092739-12
Q1 20092640-14
Q4 20081748-31
Q3 2008381820
Q2 2008401624
Q1 200828272
Q4 200733258
Q3 200732267
Q2 2007401921
Q1 2007481929
Q4 2006402020
Q3 2006352015
Q2 2006451827
Q1 2006511635
Q4 2005432419
Q3 2005391920
Q2 2005442321
Q1 2005392217
Q4 2004452322
Q3 2004402317
Q2 2004411822
Q1 200433267
Q4 2003312011
Q3 200329272
Q2 20032427-3
Q1 200330282
Q4 2002382414
Q3 2002411922
Q2 2002331914
Q1 20022431-7
Q4 20012237-15
Q3 20012935-6
Q2 20013235-3
Q1 2001352313
Q4 2000422913
Q3 2000502426
Q2 200030228
Q1 2000382711
Q4 1999502228
Q3 199929263
Q2 1999341618
Q1 19993437-3
Q4 1998452916
Q3 19983335-2

Chart 4
FUTURE EMPLOYMENT LEVEL
Over the next 12 months, your firm’s level of employment is expected to be…
DateHigher (%)Lower (%)Balance of Opinion
Q4 201154945
Q3 2011521438
Q2 201157453
Q1 2011501337
Q4 201049841
Q3 2010391425
Q2 2010501040
Q1 2010501238
Q4 2009541441
Q3 2009421527
Q2 2009391722
Q1 20092526-1
Q4 20082028-8
Q3 2008401228
Q2 2008441133
Q1 2008451233
Q4 2007421230
Q3 200745837
Q2 2007461234
Q1 200751645
Q4 2006501040
Q3 2006521141
Q2 200644935
Q1 200651843
Q4 200558950
Q3 200559951
Q2 2005461432
Q1 2005501139
Q4 2004501238
Q3 2004441133
Q2 2004471532
Q1 2004451431
Q4 2003411427
Q3 2003431033
Q2 2003331518
Q1 2003471334
Q4 2002401822
Q3 2002471631
Q2 2002481138
Q1 2002441826
Q4 200128271
Q3 2001312011
Q2 2001341717
Q1 2001431330
Q4 2000441727
Q3 2000471235
Q2 2000521536
Q1 2000461333
Q4 1999501338
Q3 1999381523
Q2 1999491435
Q1 1999382018
Q4 1998352015
Q3 199828280

Chart 5
ABILITY TO MEET DEMAND
How would you rate the current ability of your firm to meet an unexpected increase in demand?
DateSome difficulty (% of firms)Significant difficulty (% of firms)
Q4 20113610
Q3 2011358
Q2 2011465
Q1 2011385
Q4 2010353
Q3 2010269
Q2 2010354
Q1 2010264
Q4 2009263
Q3 2009175
Q2 2009253
Q1 2009291
Q4 2008297
Q3 20083611
Q2 2008409
Q1 20082915
Q4 20074218
Q3 20074212
Q2 20074114
Q1 20073218
Q4 20063614
Q3 20063215
Q2 20063414
Q1 20063312
Q4 20053515
Q3 20053610
Q2 2005349
Q1 20052611
Q4 2004387
Q3 20043310
Q2 2004388
Q1 2004274
Q4 2003326
Q3 2003296
Q2 2003347
Q1 2003356
Q4 2002334
Q3 2002356
Q2 2002394
Q1 2002264
Q4 2001341
Q3 2001194
Q2 2001350
Q1 20013712
Q4 2000358
Q3 20004313
Q2 2000526
Q1 20004113
Q4 19993710
Q3 19993811

Chart 6
LABOUR SHORTAGES
Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand?
DateYes (% of firms)
Q4 201129
Q3 201125
Q2 201125
Q1 201114
Q4 201016
Q3 201020
Q2 201012
Q1 201012
Q4 20097
Q3 200916
Q2 200917
Q1 200913
Q4 200820
Q3 200836
Q2 200840
Q1 200830
Q4 200741
Q3 200741
Q2 200733
Q1 200741
Q4 200635
Q3 200637
Q2 200627
Q1 200644
Q4 200549
Q3 200551
Q2 200536
Q1 200533
Q4 200436
Q3 200444
Q2 200437
Q1 200435
Q4 200330
Q3 200334
Q2 200331
Q1 200336
Q4 200240
Q3 200238
Q2 200239
Q1 200231
Q4 200135
Q3 200135
Q2 200148
Q1 200151
Q4 200059
Q3 200056
Q2 200065
Q1 200043
Q4 199944
Q3 199936
Q2 199968
Q1 199931
Q4 199840
Q3 199826

Chart 7
INPUT PRICE INFLATION
Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services purchased expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as over the past year?
DateIncrease at a greater rate (%)Increase at a lesser rate (%)Balance of Opinion
Q4 201128235
Q3 201126233
Q2 2011501535
Q1 2011531539
Q4 2010421131
Q3 2010432320
Q2 2010481434
Q1 2010461729
Q4 2009422220
Q3 2009372710
Q2 20093045-15
Q1 20092457-34
Q4 20081765-48
Q3 20082338-15
Q2 2008511338
Q1 2008421626
Q4 20072632-6
Q3 20072326-3
Q2 200720200
Q1 20071930-11
Q4 20062435-11
Q3 20062531-6
Q2 200631247
Q1 20062629-3
Q4 2005341717
Q3 2005431528
Q2 200527270
Q1 200526251
Q4 20041740-23
Q3 20043233-1
Q2 2004432220
Q1 20042232-11
Q4 20031923-4
Q3 20031734-17
Q2 20032334-11
Q1 200331256
Q4 2002332013
Q3 2002301217
Q2 200225178
Q1 20022129-8
Q4 20011245-33
Q3 2001938-29
Q2 20012328-5
Q1 20012030-10
Q4 200026206
Q3 200028208
Q2 2000391426
Q1 200026179
Q4 199924186
Q3 19992225-3
Q2 1999361323
Q1 19991630-14
Q4 19981921-2
Q3 19982223-1

Chart 8
OUTPUT PRICE INFLATION
Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services sold expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as over the past year?
DateIncrease at a greater rate (%)Increase at a lesser rate (%)Balance of Opinion
Q4 20113037-7
Q3 20112433-9
Q2 2011362313
Q1 2011463214
Q4 2010381523
Q3 2010451629
Q2 2010471928
Q1 2010451728
Q4 2009382810
Q3 200937343
Q2 20092939-10
Q1 20092559-35
Q4 20083053-23
Q3 20082933-5
Q2 2008422220
Q1 2008342411
Q4 200728262
Q3 20072528-4
Q2 20072332-9
Q1 20072932-3
Q4 20062931-2
Q3 20062331-8
Q2 200627207
Q1 200631265
Q4 200529263
Q3 2005342311
Q2 20052325-2
Q1 200531238
Q4 20042136-15
Q3 2004322210
Q2 20042933-4
Q1 20042933-4
Q4 20031635-19
Q3 200326233
Q2 20032633-7
Q1 20032526-1
Q4 20022830-2
Q3 2002321912
Q2 2002342014
Q1 20022433-9
Q4 20011541-27
Q3 20012530-5
Q2 20012340-17
Q1 20012429-5
Q4 200028217
Q3 200028226
Q2 200026215
Q1 2000291415
Q4 19992324-1
Q3 199929227
Q2 199927189
Q1 19992230-9
Q4 19982034-14
Q3 19981441-27

Chart 9
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index?
DateBelow 1 per cent (% of firms)1 to 2 per cent (% of firms)2 to 3 per cent (% of firms)Above 3 per cent (% of firms)
Q4 2011341514
Q3 2011041477
Q2 20111186218
Q1 20112215815
Q4 2010247443
Q3 2010753325
Q2 2010250453
Q1 2010054406
Q4 2009961207
Q3 20096493411
Q2 20091149354
Q1 20094137154
Q4 20083043223
Q3 20081184832
Q2 20080135036
Q1 20080285217
Q4 20070305612
Q3 20070166812
Q2 20071147014
Q1 20071286010
Q4 20061266011
Q3 20060156320
Q2 20060156122
Q1 20062156318
Q4 20050146119
Q3 20050106027
Q2 2005118687
Q1 2005033604
Q4 20040295612
Q3 2004033549
Q2 20040225517
Q1 2004045475
Q4 2003040543
Q3 2003143524
Q2 2003039555
Q1 20031155726
Q4 2002027639
Q3 2002132615
Q2 2002228604
Q1 2002262332
Q4 2001559312
Q3 2001134552
Q2 2001025618

Chart 10
CREDIT CONDITIONS
Over the past 3 months, how have the terms and conditions for obtaining financing changed (compared with the previous 3 months)?
DateTightened (%)Eased (%)Balance of Opinion
Q4 201128235
Q3 20111124-13
Q2 2011226-24
Q1 20111421-6
Q4 2010822-14
Q3 20101127-16
Q2 2010818-10
Q1 20101415-1
Q4 20091426-12
Q3 20092125-4
Q2 2009332112
Q1 200944836
Q4 200863658
Q3 2008441232
Q2 2008291514
Q1 2008411724
Q4 200732824
Q3 200732725
Q2 20071025-15
Q1 20071129-19
Q4 20061021-10
Q3 2006928-19
Q2 20061420-5
Q1 20061116-5
Q4 20051523-8
Q3 20051234-22
Q2 20051330-17
Q1 20051433-19
Q4 2004828-20
Q3 20041620-4
Q2 20041518-3
Q1 20041127-16
Q4 20031525-10
Q3 20032030-10
Q2 2003241311
Q1 2003291019
Q4 2002271215
Q3 2002231310
Q2 2002251411
Q1 200236432
Q4 2001401030