Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1288
result(s)
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy
Staff Working Paper 2023-52
Serdar Birinci,
Fatih Karahan,
Yusuf Mercan,
Kurt See
We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E12,
E2,
E24,
E5,
E52,
J,
J3,
J31,
J6,
J62,
J64
Intermediary Market Power and Capital Constraints
Staff Working Paper 2023-51
Jason Allen,
Milena Wittwer
We examine how intermediary capitalization affects asset prices in a framework that allows for intermediary market power. We introduce a model in which capital-constrained intermediaries buy or trade an asset in an imperfectly competitive market, and we show that weaker capital constraints lead to both higher prices and intermediary markups.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D40,
D44,
G,
G1,
G12,
G18,
G2,
G20,
L,
L1,
L10
Anonymous Credentials: Secret-Free and Quantum-Safe
Staff Working Paper 2023-50
Raza Ali Kazmi,
Cyrus Minwalla
An anonymous credential mechanism is a set of protocols that allows users to obtain credentials from an organization and demonstrate ownership of these credentials without compromising users’ privacy. In this work, we construct the first secret-free and quantum-safe credential mechanism.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E42,
G,
G2,
G21,
O,
O3,
O31
Should Banks Be Worried About Dividend Restrictions?
Staff Working Paper 2023-49
Josef Schroth
A regulator would want to restrict dividends to force banks to rebuild capital during a crisis. But such a policy is not time-consistent. A time-consistent policy would let banks gradually rebuild capital and pay dividends even when their equity remains below pre-crisis levels.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Credit risk management,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Lender of last resort
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E13,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E44
The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions
Staff Working Paper 2023-48
Soyoung Lee
A large-scale reduction in mortgage principal can strengthen a recovery, support house prices and lower foreclosures. The nature of the intervention shapes its impact, which rests on how resources are redistributed across households. The availability of bankruptcy on unsecured debt changes the response to large-scale mortgage relief by reducing precautionary savings.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Debt management,
Housing
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E3,
E32,
E6
Labour Supply and Firm Size
Staff Working Paper 2023-47
Lin Shao,
Faisal Sohail,
Emircan Yurdagul
This paper documents a systematic pattern of how wages, hours and their relationship vary across firms of different sizes. Using a model with heterogeneous firms and workers, we show how the interplay between wages, hours and firm size affect worker sorting and inequality.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J2,
J3,
J31
International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects
Staff Working Paper 2023-46
Fabio Ghironi,
Daisoon Kim,
Galip Kemal Ozhan
We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Exchange rates,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F31,
F4,
F41,
F42,
F5,
F51
Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis
Staff Working Paper 2023-45
Tony Chernis
I show how to combine large numbers of forecasts using several approaches within the framework of a Bayesian predictive synthesis. I find techniques that choose and combine a handful of forecasts, known as global-local shrinkage priors, perform best.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C5,
C52,
C53,
E,
E3,
E37
A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight
Staff Working Paper 2023-44
Seunghoon Na,
Yinxi Xie
This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Exchange rates,
International topics,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
E7,
E70,
F,
F3,
F31,
F4,
F41