Staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.
216
result(s)
Resilience of bank liquidity ratios in the presence of a central bank digital currency
Staff Analytical Note 2022-5
Alissa Gorelova,
Bena Lands,
Maria teNyenhuis
Could Canadian banks continue to meet their regulatory liquidity requirements after the introduction of a cash-like retail central bank digital currency (CBDC)? We conduct a hypothetical exercise to estimate how a CBDC could affect bank liquidity by increasing the run-off rates of transactional retail deposits under four increasingly severe scenarios.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial institutions,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
C,
E,
E4,
G,
G2,
G21,
O,
O3,
O33
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022
Staff Analytical Note 2022-4
Kyle Boutilier,
Thomas J. Carter,
Xin Scott Chen,
Eshini Ekanayake,
Louis Poirier,
Peter Shannon,
Akash Uppal,
Lin Xiang
We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.7% in 2021 to 2.9% by 2024. Compared with the April 2021 assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, 0.25 percentage points higher than staff’s last assessment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Interest rates,
Monetary policy,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E2,
E4,
E5,
F,
F0,
O,
O4
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment
Staff Analytical Note 2022-3
Guyllaume Faucher,
Christopher Hajzler,
Martin Kuncl,
Dmitry Matveev,
Youngmin Park,
Temel Taskin
We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Interest rates,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E3,
E4,
E5
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health
Staff Analytical Note 2022-2
Erik Ens,
Corinne Luu,
Kurt See,
Shu Lin Wee
We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Econometric and statistical methods,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J2,
J21,
J6
Housing demand in Canada: A novel approach to classifying mortgaged homebuyers
Staff Analytical Note 2022-1
Mikael Khan,
Yang Xu
We introduce a novel approach to categorize mortgaged homebuyers into first-time homebuyers, repeat homebuyers and investors. We show how these groups contribute to activity in Canadian housing markets, and we analyze the differences in their demographic and financial characteristics.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial stability,
Housing
JEL Code(s):
R,
R2,
R21,
R3,
R31
The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program
Staff Analytical Note 2021-23
Rohan Arora,
Sermin Gungor,
Joe Nesrallah,
Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc,
Jonathan Witmer
We assess the response of Government of Canada bond yields to the Bank of Canada’s initial announcement of the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP) as well as to the Bank’s later GBPP purchase operations.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy implementation,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E63
Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline
Staff Analytical Note 2021-22
Olga Bilyk,
Ken Chow,
Yang Xu
We study the relationship between characteristics of new mortgages and borrowers’ financial stress in Canada’s energy-intensive regions following the 2014 collapse in oil prices. We find that borrowers with limited home equity were more likely to have difficulty repaying debt.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Housing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C25,
D,
D1,
D14,
G,
G2,
G21,
G5,
G51,
R,
R2,
R21
Canadian housing supply elasticities
Staff Analytical Note 2021-21
Nuno Paixao
We explain how housing supply elasticities for Canadian cities are estimated. The procedure we use exploits the systematic differences in various cities’ sensitivity to regional house-price cycles.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Housing
JEL Code(s):
R,
R1,
R14,
R3,
R31,
R5,
R52
Reaching for yield or resiliency? Explaining the shift in Canadian pension plan portfolios
Staff Analytical Note 2021-20
Sébastien Betermier,
Nicholas Byrne,
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine,
Hayden Ford,
Jason Ho,
Chelsea Mitchell
“Reach for yield”—This is the commonly heard explanation for why pension plans shift their portfolios toward alternative assets. But we show that the new portfolios also hold more bonds, offer lower average returns and produce smaller and less volatile solvency deficits. These shifts are part of a broader strategy to reduce solvency risk.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G11