High-quality, innovative research underpins everything we do. Explore the broad range of staff research that our people have the intellectual freedom to pursue, and learn about the ways in which the Bank collaborates with and supports the external research community.
You can also browse all our research and subscribe to our research newsletter and latest research feed.
Staff research
Staff research is produced independently from the Bank’s Governing Council. This research may support or challenge prevailing policy orthodoxy or differ from official Bank views. Therefore, views expressed are solely those of the authors, and no responsibility for them should be attributed to the Bank.
Staff analytical notes
Staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.
Staff working papers
Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
Staff discussion papers
Staff discussion papers are completed staff research studies on a wide variety of subjects relevant to central bank policy.
Technical reports
Technical reports provide detailed descriptions of staff research project methodologies and model development.
Research leadership
Profiles of the Bank’s economic research leadership, featuring their publications, education, and research fields.
Research staff
Profiles of the Bank’s research staff, featuring their publications, education and research fields.
Authors
Listing of current and past authors of Bank research papers, articles and other publications, 1994 to present.
Collaboration
Financial System Research Centre
The FSRC promotes financial system research in Canada to inform policy and improve the economic and financial well-being of Canadians.
Visiting Scholar Program
This program provides outstanding scholars with an opportunity to work at the Bank of Canada.
Conferences and workshops
Papers and proceedings from Bank of Canada conferences and workshops
Partnerships in Innovation and Technology (PIVOT) Program
We’re looking for innovators to help us respond to challenges that may not have a commercial solution readily available.
Awards
Research paper awards
At the Bank of Canada, we’re pleased to offer awards for research papers by students and by staff.
Scholarship awards
The Bank of Canada’s Scholarship and Work Placement program is designed to assist students with disabilities and Indigenous students in furthering their education and to encourage them to take an interest in the work performed by the Bank of Canada.
Fellowship Program
Learn more about a program to foster excellence in research in Canada and develop partnerships with experts outside the Bank of Canada in areas important to the Bank’s mandate.
The Governor's Challenge
The Governor’s Challenge simulates the monetary policy decision-making process by putting students in the role of advisor to the Bank’s Governing Council.
Browse research
Find Bank of Canada research by keyword, author, content type, JEL code, topic or date of publication.
Research newsletters
Our newsletter summarizes internal and external publication contributions by Bank of Canada researchers.
Latest research
Pricing behaviour and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from consumer prices microdata
Staff Analytical Note 2024-6
Olga Bilyk,
Mikael Khan,
Olena Kostyshyna
Using the microdata underlying the Canadian consumer price index, we study how often and by how much firms changed their prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the surge in inflation was mainly associated with retailers raising prices much more often than before. We also find that more recently, corporate price-setting behaviour appears to be approaching pre-pandemic norms.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E31,
L,
L1,
L11
Measuring household financial stress in Canada using consumer surveys
Staff Analytical Note 2024-5
Nicolas Bédard,
Patrick Sabourin
We use data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations to understand how households are coping with high inflation and high interest rates. We build a subjective measure of financial stress and find that the level of stress is at a historical high but remains manageable for most households.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Domestic demand and components,
Financial stability,
Monetary policy transmission,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D14,
G,
G5,
H,
H3
Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach
Staff Working Paper 2024-10
Antoine Poulin-Moore,
Kerem Tuzcuoglu
We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C51,
C53,
E,
E3,
E32
COVID-19 Hasn’t Killed Merchant Acceptance of Cash: Results from the 2023 Merchant Acceptance Survey
Staff Discussion Paper 2024-2
Angelika Welte,
Katrina Talavera,
Liang Wang,
Joy Wu
The Bank of Canada’s Merchant Acceptance Survey finds that 96% of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada accepted cash in 2023. Acceptance of debit and credit cards has increased to 89%, and acceptance of digital payments has also increased. However, Canada is far from being a cashless society.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E4,
L,
L2