It has become a tradition that I deliver a speech late in the year on issues related to the financial system. When I say "financial system," I mean financial institutions and markets, together with the clearing and settlement systems through which financial assets flow.
In Canada, we were looking for weaker economic growth in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of 2008, but some strengthening thereafter. As you can see from Table 2, we were expecting continued strong final domestic demand throughout the projection period, but considerably weaker net exports.
Over time, it has become clear that the best contribution monetary policy can make to the promotion of the economic and financial welfare of Canada is to keep inflation low, stable, and predictable.
The recent dislocations in credit markets have brought these issues into sharp focus. Among other things, the market turbulence has highlighted the critical role that confidence and liquidity play in financial markets.
In recent months, much has been said, and written, about developments in financial markets. The turbulence in global credit markets, which had its roots in developments in the market for subprime mortgages here in the United States, has been a focal point of attention for market participants and policy-makers around the world.
Given the Institute's membership and its focus on financial stability, I feel safe in saying that all of us here today watched this summer's turbulence in credit markets with interest, to put it mildly. What began in the spring as a repricing of credit risk turned into dislocations that have yet to fully run their course.
Since the July Monetary Policy Report Update, and against a backdrop of robust global economic expansion and strong commodity prices, the Canadian economy has been stronger than projected. It is now operating further above its production potential than had been previously expected.
Sound financial investment is important to individuals, to firms, and to society as a whole. By definition, investment is forward looking, and thus our future financial well-being is shaped by the soundness of the investment decisions we make today.
The turbulence in financial markets did not come about against a backdrop of economic weakness. Indeed, over the past number of years, the global economy has shown remarkable strength. We were also seeing encouraging signs of growth being spread more evenly.
We have seen a remarkable continuation of robust global growth, fuelled by increases in international trade and facilitated by the continuing evolution and expansion of capital markets. Domestic demand began to grow more strongly in Europe and Asia and to slow in the United States, and this began to ease some of the concerns related to global imbalances that I spoke about during my last visit.
The last few weeks have been a time of turbulence in financial markets. In times such as these, it is common for people to focus on day-by-day or even hour-by-hour events, and to lose sight of the future. But tonight, I want to focus on the future; specifically, the future of inflation targeting in Canada.
Economic growth and inflation in Canada in the first half of this year have been stronger than was expected in the April Monetary Policy Report. The Bank judges that the economy is now operating further above its production potential than was projected in April.
Now, Manitoba – right in the middle of our vast country – might seem an odd place to talk about globalization. But this province, like the rest of Canada, is very much affected by global economic forces.
Over the years, we at the Bank of Canada have learned that the best contribution that monetary policy can make to the economic welfare of Canadians is to keep inflation low, stable, and predictable. We try to keep the annual increase in consumer price inflation at 2 per cent, which is the middle of a 1 to 3 per cent inflation-control range.
For 85 years, the Council has promoted the idea that the United States should take a leading role in addressing global challenges. And it has done so consistently through the years, even during times when isolationism was more fashionable.
We are all interested in seeing the continued development of international capital markets, as part of the advancement of a market-based, liberalized trade and financial regime. Let's remember that an open, market-based economic system is increasingly vital, in a world where change is driven by the development of new technologies and modes of competition; and where adjustments are occurring all the time.
It goes without saying that a sound system of private pensions is important from the perspective of pensioners who rely on a given plan for their retirement income. For firms, a pension plan can help to attract and retain staff, and so the business community also counts on a sound pension system.
Why do I think that such an order is so important? Well, in part it's because history has helped to demonstrate its virtues. But it's also extremely important to bear in mind the context, that is, the world in which we live today. This is a world in which adjustment is perpetual, where change is driven by the development of new technologies, where sectors and nations continually attempt to secure some new advantage. And in this world, price signals from markets help us to understand what adjustments are needed.
In our latest Monetary Policy Report, which we released last Thursday, we noted that Canada's economic growth did indeed slow, but recently, inflation has been higher than expected. After considering the full range of indicators, the Bank now judges that the Canadian economy was operating just above its production capacity in the first quarter of this year.
In our latest Monetary Policy Report, which we released last Thursday, we noted that Canada's economic growth did indeed slow, but recently, inflation has been higher than expected. After considering the full range of indicators, the Bank now judges that the Canadian economy was operating just above its production capacity in the first quarter of this year.
Growth of the Canadian economy has been essentially in line with the Bank's expectations as set out in the January Monetary Policy Report Update. But inflation has been higher than expected. After considering the full range of indicators, the Bank now judges that the Canadian economy was operating just above its production capacity in the first quarter of this year.
The main goal of monetary policy is to help the country achieve strong, sustainable economic performance, and, in doing so, to contribute to rising living standards for Canadians. Experience has shown that the best way for a central bank to meet this goal, given the instruments at its disposal, is by keeping inflation low and stable. Low and stable inflation increases confidence in the future value of money, and allows for clear price signals.
In my opinion, much of this performance can be credited to the increasingly widespread acceptance of the need for a liberalized worldwide financial and trade order. Many countries that once closed themselves to the outside world are now actively engaged in the global economy.
These remarks are based on a to the Vancouver Board of Trade, 13 September 2006.
Our primary objective at the Bank is to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canadians. Over the years, we have learned that the best contribution that monetary policy can make in this regard is to give Canadians confidence in the future value of their money. We do this by keeping inflation low, stable, and predictable.
The past five years have indeed been a period of great and relatively rapid economic change, both here in Saskatchewan and across the country. In my remarks today, I'd like to describe this change and discuss its significance to our economic well-being.
The preamble of this bill addresses some very important issues: the need for Canadians to trust in the management of the public purse, and the importance of openness and accountability. I can assure you that the Bank of Canada takes these issues very seriously.
The strengths of the twin cities—in research, advanced manufacturing, and information technology, among other sectors—are well known. Less well known, perhaps, is the region's success in responding effectively to changes in the world economy.
Our interest in income trusts relates to the efficient functioning and health of Canada's financial system. A safe and efficient financial system is essential to Canada's economic well-being. The Bank of Canada works with other government agencies, as well as market participants, to promote the safe and efficient functioning of the financial system.
The Bank of Canada has been around for over 70 years. Throughout this period, the Bank has had one over-arching mandate: to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canadians. Over the years, we have learned that the best contribution that monetary policy can make in this regard is to give Canadians confidence in the future value of their money.
The Canadian economy is judged to have been operating at, or just above, its production capacity at the end of 2006, following weaker-than-expected growth in the second half of last year. This slowdown stemmed from reduced demand for Canadian exports—related to weakness in the U.S. automotive and housing sectors—and from the need for Canadian businesses to adjust inventories.
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