Ron Alquist

Policy Adviser

Ron Alquist is Policy Adviser in the International Economics Analysis Department at the Bank of Canada. He is an international economist whose principal research interests include global commodity markets, exchange rates, and international financial markets. Ron received his PhD in economics from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.

Contact

Ron Alquist

Policy Adviser
International Economic Analysis
Strategic Leadership and Support

Bank of Canada
234 Laurier Avenue West
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Curriculum vitae

Latest

A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market

Working Paper 2013-23 Ron Alquist, Justin-Damien Guénette
We examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in North America. This production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil-recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable.

Fire-Sale FDI or Business as Usual?

Working Paper 2013-17 Ron Alquist, Rahul Mukherjee, Linda Tesar
Using a new data set, we examine the characteristics and dynamics of cross-border mergers and acquisitions during emerging-market financial crises, that is, so-called “fire-sale FDI.” Our findings shed fresh light on whether the transactions undertaken during crisis periods differ in fundamental ways from those undertaken during more tranquil periods.

The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil

Discussion Paper 2011-6 Ron Alquist, Olivier Gervais
Over the past 10 years, financial firms have increased the size of their positions in the oil futures market. At the same time, oil prices have increased dramatically.
Content Type(s): Discussion Papers, Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, Q, Q4, Q41

Forecasting the Price of Oil

Working Paper 2011-15 Ron Alquist, Lutz Kilian, Robert Vigfusson
We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications?

9 June 2010 Crude Oil Futures: A Crystal Ball?

Based on recent research, this article discusses three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil. First, the response of the oil-futures curve can be used to identify the persistence of oil-price shocks and to obtain an indicator of the rate at which they will diminish. Second, the spread between the current futures price and the spot price of oil can be interpreted as an indicator of the precautionary demand for oil. Third, because oil-futures prices are volatile, forecasts of the future spot price of oil using futures prices should be supplemented with other information to improve their accuracy.

See More

Other

Refereed Journals

  • “A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Oil Market”
    (with J.-D. Guénette), Energy Policy, forthcoming.
  • “The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil”
    (with O. Gervais), The Energy Journal, forthcoming.
  • “Did Gold-Standard Adherence Reduce Sovereign Capital Costs?”
    (with B. Chabot), Journal of Monetary Economics, 58 (2011): 262-272.
  • “How Important is Liquidity Risk for Sovereign Bond Risk Premia? Evidence from the London Stock Exchange”
    Journal of International Economics, 82 (2010): 219-229.
  • “What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?”
    (with L. Kilian), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25 (2010): 539-573.
  • “Did Gold‐Standard Adherence Reduce Sovereign Capital Costs?”
    (with B. Chabot) Journal of Monetary Economics, 58 (3): 262–72, 2011.
  • "How Much Does Liquidity Risk Matter For Sovereign Bond Risk Premia? Evidence from the London Stock Exchange"
    Journal of International Economics, 82 (2010): 219-229.
  • "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?"
    (with L. Kilian), forthcoming: Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25(4), June 2010.
  • "Conventional and Unconventional Models Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment,"
    (with Menzie Chinn), International Journal of Finance and Economy, 13 (2008).
  • "Tracking the Euro's Progress,"
    (with Menzie Chinn), International Finance (November 2000).

Other Publications

  • “Fire-sale FDI: All Smoke and No Fire?”
    (with R. Mukherjee and L. Tesar), VoxEU, 26 March 2013.
  • “Forecasting the Price of Oil.”
    (with L. Kilian and R. J. Vigfusson) In Handbook of Economic Forecasting, 2, edited by G. Elliott and A. Timmerman. Amsterdam: North-Holland. (Forthcoming)

Education

  • PhD, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
  • MSc, London School of Economics
  • BA, University of California, Santa Cruz

Research Interests

  • International finance
  • International Commodity Markets
  • Monetary Policy

Follow the Bank