José Dorich

Director

José Dorich is the Director of the Model Development Division in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. His primary research interests include macroeconomic theory, monetary economics and applied macroeconomics. Specific topics include inflation dynamics, quantitative easing and price level targeting. Jose has also worked extensively with ToTEM - the Bank of Canada’s main DSGE model for projection and policy analysis. Mr. Dorich received his PhD in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

Contact

José Dorich

Director
Canadian Economic Analysis
Model Development

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Latest

November 16, 2017 An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest

The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.

ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model

This report provides a detailed technical description of an updated version of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM II), which replaced ToTEM (Murchison and Rennison 2006) in June 2011 as the Bank of Canada’s quarterly projection model for Canada.
Content Type(s): Technical Reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, F, F4, F41

August 18, 2011 Introducing Multiple Interest rates in ToTEM

This article describes changes to the structure of ToTEM—the Bank of Canada’s main model for projection and policy analysis—that allow an independent role for long-term interest rates, as well as for the risk spreads that lead to differences in the interest rates faced by households, firms and the government. These changes broaden the range of policy questions that the model can address and improve its ability to explain data. The authors use the model to simulate the effects of shocks to the risk spreads on interest rates similar to those that occurred during the recent financial crisis. They also use the model to assess the macroeconomic impact of higher requirements for bank capital and liquidity.

Resurrecting the Role of Real Money Balance Effects

Staff Working Paper 2009-24 José Dorich
I present a structural econometric analysis supporting the hypothesis that money is still relevant for shaping inflation and output dynamics in the United States. In particular, I find that real money balance effects are quantitatively important, although smaller than they used to be in the early postwar period.

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Other

Other Research

  • “Price Level Targeting, the Zero Lower Bound on the Nominal Interest Rate and Imperfect Credibility”
    (with Gino Cateau)
  • “Imperfect Asset Substitution in a Small Open Economy Model”
    (with Rhys Mendes and Yang Zhang)
  • “Forward-Looking versus Backward-Looking Behavior in Inflation Dynamics: a New Test”
  • “The Welfare Losses of Price Rigidities”

Education

  • Ph.D., Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (2008)
  • M.Sc., Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (2004)
  • B.Sc., Economics, Universidad del Pacifico (1998)

Research Interests

  • macroeconomic theory
  • monetary economics
  • applied macroeconomics

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