Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle

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Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

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The Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap Estimates

We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S.

A New Measure of the Canadian Effective Exchange Rate

Canada’s international competitiveness has received increasing attention in recent years as exports have fallen short of expectations and Canada has lost market share. This paper asks whether the Bank of Canada’s current effective exchange rate measure, the CERI, is still an accurate measure of Canada’s international competitiveness.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F3, F31

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