F32 - Current Account Adjustment; Short-Term Capital Movements - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T07:27:55+00:00The Macroeconomic Effects of Portfolio Equity Inflows
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/06/staff-working-paper-2023-31/
I provide evidence that portfolio equity inflows can have expansionary effects on GDP and inflation if not offset by monetary policy. I use a shift-share instrument to estimate equity inflows based on plausibly exogenous timing of inflows into mutual funds with heterogeneous country portfolios.2023-06-09T09:26:14+00:00enThe Macroeconomic Effects of Portfolio Equity Inflows2023-06-09Business fluctuations and cyclesInternational financial marketsInternational topicsMonetary policyStaff Working Paper 2023-31https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/swp2023-31.pdfThe Macroeconomic Effects of Portfolio Equity InflowsNick SanderJune 2023EE3E32FF3F32F4F44Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/11/staff-working-paper-2022-46/
Unregulated capital flows are likely excessive during a stagflation episode, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy’s supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages and cause unwelcome upward pressure on firm costs, yet market forces likely generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows.2022-11-10T10:24:04+00:00enStagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows2022-11-10Inflation and pricesInternational financial marketsInternational topicsMonetary policyStaff Working Paper 2022-46https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/swp2022-46.pdfStaff Working Paper 2022-46Julien BenguiLouphou CoulibalyNovember 2022DD6D62EE5E52FF3F32F38F4F41Exports and the Exchange Rate: A General Equilibrium Perspective
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/04/staff-working-paper-2022-18/
How do a country’s exports change when its currency depreciates? Does it matter which forces drive the exchange rate deprecation in the first place? We find that this relationship varies greatly depending on what drives exchange rate movements, and we conclude that the direct relationship between the exchange rate and exports is weak for Canada.2022-04-04T14:42:27+00:00enExports and the Exchange Rate: A General Equilibrium Perspective2022-04-04Balance of payments and componentsBusiness fluctuations and cyclesExchange rate regimesExchange ratesInternational topicsMonetary policy transmissionTrade integrationStaff Working Paper 2022-18https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/swp2022-18.pdfExports and the Exchange Rate: A General Equilibrium PerspectivePatrick AlexanderAbeer RezaApril 2022FF3F31F32F33F4F41News-Driven International Credit Cycles
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/12/staff-working-paper-2021-66/
This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust.2021-12-23T13:31:43+00:00enNews-Driven International Credit Cycles2021-12-23Credit and credit aggregatesEconomic modelsFinancial stabilityRecent economic and financial developmentsSectoral balance sheetStaff Working Paper 2021-66https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/swp2021-66.pdfStaff Working Paper 2021-66Galip Kemal OzhanDecember 2021EE4E44FF3F32F4F41GG1G15G2G21The Countercyclical Capital Buffer and International Bank Lending: Evidence from Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/11/staff-working-paper-2021-61/
We examine the impact of the CCyB on foreign lending activities of Canadian banks. We show that the announcement of a tightening in another country’s CCyB leads to a decrease in the growth rate of cross-border lending between Canadian banks and borrowers in that other country.2021-11-29T11:21:19+00:00enThe Countercyclical Capital Buffer and International Bank Lending: Evidence from Canada2021-11-29Credit risk managementFinancial institutionsFinancial stabilityFinancial system regulation and policiesInternational topicsStaff Working Paper 2021-61https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/swp2021-61.pdfStaff Working Paper 2021-61David Xiao ChenChristian FriedrichNovember 2021EE3E32FF2F21F3F32GG2G21G28Monetary Policy and Cross-Border Interbank Market Fragmentation: Lessons from the Crisis
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/08/staff-working-paper-2020-34/
We present a two-country model featuring risky lending and cross-border interbank market frictions.2020-08-27T13:10:08+00:00enMonetary Policy and Cross-Border Interbank Market Fragmentation: Lessons from the Crisis2020-08-27Business fluctuations and cyclesCredit and credit aggregatesInternational financial marketsMonetary policy frameworkMonetary policy transmissionStaff Working Paper 2020-34https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/swp2020-34.pdfStaff Working Paper 2020-34Tobias BlattnerJonathan SwarbrickAugust 2020EE4E44E5E52FF3F32F36Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/06/staff-working-paper-2020-25/
We propose a new strength measure of the global financial cycle by estimating a regime-switching factor model on cross-border equity flows for 61 countries. We then assess how the strength of the global financial cycle affects monetary policy independence, which is defined as the response of central banks' policy interest rates to exogenous changes in inflation.2020-06-10T11:42:33+00:00enMonetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle2020-06-10Business fluctuations and cyclesExchange rate regimesFinancial system regulation and policiesInternational financial marketsMonetary policyStaff Working Paper 2020-25https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/swp2020-25.pdfMonetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial CycleChristian FriedrichPierre GuérinDanilo Leiva-LeonJune 2020EE4E5FF3F32F4F42GG1G15G18Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/04/staff-working-paper-2020-13/
We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external account between shortterm securities and foreign direct investment (FDI).2020-04-15T15:19:52+00:00enInterest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool2020-04-15International financial marketsMonetary policy and uncertaintyMonetary policy frameworkStaff Working Paper 2020-13https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/swp2020-13.pdfStaff Working Paper 2020-13Fabio GhironiGalip Kemal OzhanApril 2020EE3E32FF2F21F3F32GG1G15IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/03/technical-report-116/
We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.2020-03-06T11:09:46+00:00enIMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity2020-03-06Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsEconomic modelsInternational topicsTechnical Report 116https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/tr116.pdfTechnical Report 116Patrick BlagraveClaudia GodboutJustin-Damien GuénetteRené LalondeNikita PerevalovMarch 2020CC6C68EE2E27E3E37FF0F01F3F32F4F47Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/05/staff-working-paper-2019-17/
This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation.2019-05-03T08:34:29+00:00enEstimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports2019-05-03Econometric and statistical methodsExchange ratesInternational topicsStaff Working Paper 2019-17https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/swp2019-17.pdfEstimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total ExportsThierry MayerWalter SteingressMay 2019FF1F11F12F3F31F32