Stephen S. Poloz - Bank Publications - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T06:21:26+00:00Financial System Review Summary—2020
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/05/financial-system-review-summary-2020/
This issue of the Financial System Review focuses on the impact of COVID 19. The pandemic presents an unprecedented shock to the Canadian economy. This report identifies the effects on the Canadian financial system and explains how recent actions by the Bank and other policy-makers are helping to manage them. It further describes how a resilient financial system can help households and businesses smooth the effects of the COVID-19 shock and prepare for a robust recovery.2020-05-14T10:00:58+00:00enFinancial System Review Summary—20202020-05-14Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/12/staff-discussion-paper-2019-12/
This paper discusses three long-term forces that are acting on the global economy and their implications for companies and policy-makers.2019-12-11T10:17:23+00:00enChanging Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt2019-12-11Financial stabilityInternational topicsMonetary policyMonetary policy and uncertaintyTrade integrationStaff Discussion Paper 2019-12https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/sdp2019-12.pdfChanging Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and DebtStephen S. PolozDecember 2019EE6E63FF0F02F1F15F5F53F6HOO1O11O3O33Technological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/11/staff-discussion-paper-2019-11/
This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.”2019-11-14T09:57:40+00:00enTechnological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution2019-11-14Economic modelsFinancial stabilityMonetary policy and uncertaintyMonetary policy frameworkStaff Discussion Paper 2019-11https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/sdp2019-11.pdfTechnological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial RevolutionStephen S. PolozNovember 2019CC5EE3OO1O11O3O33Financial System Review Summary—2019
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/05/fsr-summary-2019/
In our Financial System Review, we identify the main vulnerabilities and risks to financial stability in Canada and explain how they have evolved over the past year. This issue reflects the Bank’s judgment that the vulnerabilities associated with high household debt and imbalances in the housing market have declined modestly but remain significant. The Financial System Review is a product of the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada: Stephen S. Poloz, Carolyn A. Wilkins, Timothy Lane, Lawrence Schembri, Lynn Patterson and Paul Beaudry.2019-05-16T10:30:49+00:00enFinancial System Review Summary—20192019-05-16The Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/09/staff-discussion-paper-2016-20/
In this paper we explore the nexus between cross-border trade integration and monetary policy. We first review the evidence that trade liberalization has increased the degree of integration in North America and conclude that, while robust structural inferences remain elusive, there is sufficient supporting evidence for central banks to treat the issue seriously.2016-09-26T18:55:04+00:00enThe Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy2016-09-26Economic modelsMonetary policyTrade integrationStaff Discussion Paper 2016-20https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/sdp2016-20.pdfThe Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary PolicyStephen S. PolozSeptember 2016EE3E37E5FF1F4F41F6The Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture—Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/06/staff-discussion-paper-2016-13/
In the Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture, Governor Stephen S. Poloz shows how changing the mix of monetary and fiscal policies can yield the same outcomes for growth and inflation, but lead to different results for public sector and private sector debt levels, which can impact financial stability.2016-06-04T12:39:19+00:00enThe Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture—Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message2016-06-04Economic modelsFinancial stabilityFiscal policyMonetary policy frameworkStaff Discussion Paper 2016-13https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/sdp2016-13.pdfThe Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture—Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the MessageStephen S. PolozJune 2016EE3E37E5E6E63Integrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s Perspective
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2014/10/discussion-paper-2014-6/
This paper discusses how central banking is evolving in light of recent experience, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of uncertainty into policy decision-making.2014-10-10T10:53:48+00:00enIntegrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s Perspective2014-10-10Economic modelsFinancial stabilityMonetary policy and uncertaintyMonetary policy communicationsMonetary policy frameworkDiscussion Paper 2014-6https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/dp2014-6.pdfIntegrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s PerspectiveStephen S. PolozOctober 2014CC5C50EE3E37E5E6E61The Commodity-Price Cycle and Regional Economic Performance in Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/1996/09/working-paper-1996-12/
This paper attempts to provide one interpretation of the broad regional economic history of Canada since the early 1970s. As the title of the paper suggests, we believe that, to a significant degree, regional diversity in economic performance reflects movements in Canada's terms of trade, which very frequently are tied to developments in world commodity markets.1996-09-01T16:45:09+00:00enThe Commodity-Price Cycle and Regional Economic Performance in Canada1996-09-01Regional economic developmentsWorking Paper 1996-12 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp96-12.pdfThe Commodity-Price Cycle and Regional Economic Performance in CanadaMario LefebvreStephen S. PolozSeptember 1996EE3E32The Transmission of Monetary Policy
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/1996/05/research-paper-1996/
Text of major 1995 lecture by Bank Governor Gordon Thiessen, plus articles from Bank of Canada Review and other sources1996-05-17T13:33:15+00:00enThe Transmission of Monetary Policy1996-05-17The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/r944a.pdf
This article provides an overview of the Bank of Canada's new economic model, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), which has been under development at the Bank since 1989.
The model has two roles. It is used to make economic projections, which are conducted quarterly and form an important basis for discussions of monetary policy between staff and senior management. QPM is also a research tool: it was developed to analyse important changes to the economy or macroeconomic policies which require a deeper understanding of long-term economic forces.
The model pays particular attention to factors shaping long-term equilibrium, such as stocks of wealth, capital, government debt and net foreign assets. Various sources of dynamics, including the adjustment of forward-looking expectations, operate to determine the transition path to equilibrium and the consistency of expectations.
The article discusses the history of QPM and earlier economic models at the Bank, and provides a simple overview of how the model works.1994-11-09T08:29:04+00:00enThe Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction1994-11-09