Justin-Damien Guénette - Latest - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T00:13:07+00:00IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/03/technical-report-116/
We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.2020-03-06T11:09:46+00:00enIMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity2020-03-06Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsEconomic modelsInternational topicsTechnical Report 116https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/tr116.pdfTechnical Report 116Patrick BlagraveClaudia GodboutJustin-Damien GuénetteRené LalondeNikita PerevalovMarch 2020CC6C68EE2E27E3E37FF0F01F3F32F4F47Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/04/staff-analytical-note-2018-9/
This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.2018-04-15T10:00:01+00:00enAssessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 20182018-04-15Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/boc-review-spring17-fay.pdf
Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging.2017-05-11T10:26:31+00:00enWhy Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies2017-05-11A Canada-US Comparison of Labour Market Conditions
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/04/staff-analytical-note-2017-4/
In this note, we provide a brief comparison of the recent developments in the labour markets in Canada and the United States. Our analysis indicates that slack remains in the Canadian labour market, while the US labour market is close to full employment.2017-04-12T10:01:21+00:00enA Canada-US Comparison of Labour Market Conditions2017-04-12The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/09/staff-analytical-note-2016-13/
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.2016-09-22T09:46:56+00:00enThe Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye2016-09-22The Case of Serial Disappointment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/07/staff-analytical-note-2016-10/
Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.2016-07-22T10:07:29+00:00enThe Case of Serial Disappointment2016-07-22Nowcasting BRIC+M in Real Time
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/10/working-paper-2015-38/
Emerging-market economies have become increasingly important in driving global GDP growth over the past 10 to 15 years. This has made timely and accurate assessment of current and future economic activity in emerging markets important for policy-makers not only in these countries but also in advanced economies.2015-10-28T09:31:09+00:00enNowcasting BRIC+M in Real Time2015-10-28Econometric and statistical methodsInternational topicsWorking Paper 2015-38https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/wp-2015-38.pdfNowcasting BRIC+M in Real TimeTatjana DahlhausJustin-Damien GuénetteGarima VasishthaOctober 2015CC3C33C5C53EE3E37A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/07/working-paper-2013-23/
We examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in North America. This production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil-recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable.2013-07-18T13:48:11+00:00enA Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market2013-07-18International topicsRecent economic and financial developmentsWorking Paper 2013-23https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/wp2013-23.pdfA Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American MarketRon AlquistJustin-Damien GuénetteJuly 2013QQ4Q41Q43Q47