Julien Champagne - Latest - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-28T18:34:00+00:00Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/staff-analytical-note-2023-17/
We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.2023-12-07T12:35:52+00:00enAssessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation2023-12-07Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/05/staff-analytical-note-2023-6/
We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.2023-05-11T16:06:50+00:00enPotential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment2023-05-11Monetary Policy, Credit Constraints and SME Employment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/12/staff-working-paper-2022-49/
We revisit an old question: how do financial constraints affect the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy? To answer this question, we propose a simple empirical strategy that combines firm-level employment and balance sheet data, identified monetary policy shocks and survey data on financing activities.2022-12-09T13:01:12+00:00enMonetary Policy, Credit Constraints and SME Employment2022-12-09Credit and credit aggregatesEconometric and statistical methodsFirm dynamicsLabour marketsMonetary policyStaff Working Paper 2022-49https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/swp2022-49.pdfMonetary Policy, Credit Constraints and SME EmploymentJulien ChampagneÉmilien Gouin-BonenfantDecember 2022EE2E3E4E43E5E52GG3Potential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/10/staff-analytical-note-2020-25/
After COVID-19, we expect potential output growth to stabilize around 1.2 percent. This is lower than the 2010–18 average growth of 1.8 percent. Relative to the April 2019 reassessment, the growth profile is revised down. Given the unknown course of the pandemic, uncertainty around these estimates is higher than in previous years.2020-10-22T07:33:34+00:00enPotential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment2020-10-22Potential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/04/staff-analytical-note-2019-10/
Potential output is expected to grow on average at 1.8 per cent over 2019–21 and at 1.9 per cent in 2022. While the contribution of trend labour input to potential output growth is expected to decrease between 2019 and 2022, the contribution of trend labour productivity is projected to increase.2019-04-17T11:03:16+00:00enPotential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment2019-04-17Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/10/staff-working-paper-2018-52/
We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests.2018-10-31T11:58:14+00:00enEvaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts2018-10-31Econometric and statistical methodsEconomic modelsInflation targetsMonetary policyStaff Working Paper 2018-52https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/swp2018-52.pdfEvaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and ForecastsJulien ChampagneGuillaume Poulin-BellisleRodrigo SekkelNovember 2018CC3C32EE1E17E3E37Changes in Monetary Regimes and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: Narrative Evidence from Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/09/staff-working-paper-2017-39/
We use narrative evidence along with a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections from 1974 to 2015 to construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks and estimate the effects of monetary policy in Canada.2017-09-25T15:54:42+00:00enChanges in Monetary Regimes and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: Narrative Evidence from Canada2017-09-25Business fluctuations and cyclesCentral bank researchEconometric and statistical methodsExchange rate regimesInflation and pricesInflation targetsInterest ratesMonetary policyMonetary policy frameworkStaff Working Paper 2017-39https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/swp2017-39.pdfChanges in Monetary Regimes and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: Narrative Evidence from CanadaJulien ChampagneRodrigo SekkelSeptember 2017EE3E31E32E4E43E5E52E58The Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap Estimates
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/06/staff-working-paper-2016-28/
We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S.2016-06-24T12:14:48+00:00enThe Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap Estimates2016-06-24Central bank researchEconometric and statistical methodsPotential outputStaff Working Paper 2016-28https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/swp2016-28.pdfThe Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap EstimatesJulien ChampagneGuillaume Poulin-BellisleRodrigo SekkelJune 2016CC3C38EE1E17E3E32Reconciling the Differences in Aggregate U.S. Wage Series
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/01/staff-working-paper-2016-1/
Average hourly real wage series from the Labor Productivity and Costs (LPC) program and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program have evolved very differently over the past decades.2016-01-21T11:09:15+00:00enReconciling the Differences in Aggregate U.S. Wage Series2016-01-21Business fluctuations and cyclesLabour marketsStaff Working Paper 2016-1https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/swp2016-1.pdfReconciling the Differences in Aggregate U.S. Wage SeriesJulien ChampagneAndré KurmannJay StewartJanuary 2016EE0E01E2E24E3E30JJ3J30The Complex Adjustment of the Canadian Economy to Lower Commodity Prices
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/01/staff-analytical-note-2016-1/
In this analytical note, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the complex structural adjustment facing the Canadian economy following the commodity price decline since mid-2014. We quantify separately the impacts coming from the commodity sector restructuring and the broader effect of significantly lower terms of trade.2016-01-20T10:00:28+00:00enThe Complex Adjustment of the Canadian Economy to Lower Commodity Prices2016-01-20