Mr. Dodge, appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada, effective 1 February 2001 for a term of seven years, retired on 31 January 2008. As Governor, he was Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank.
A native of Toronto, Mr. Dodge received a bachelor's degree (honours) in economics from Queen's University, and a PhD in economics from Princeton (1972).
During his academic career, he served as Assistant Professor of Economics at Queen's University; Associate Professor of Canadian Studies and International Economics at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Senior Fellow in the Faculty of Commerce at the University of British Columbia; and Visiting Professor in the Department of Economics at Simon Fraser University. He also served as Director of the International Economics Program of the Institute for Research on Public Policy.
During a distinguished career in the federal public service, Mr. Dodge held senior positions in the Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the Anti-Inflation Board, and the Department of Employment and Immigration. After serving in a number of increasingly senior positions at the Department of Finance, including that of G-7 Deputy, Mr. Dodge was appointed Deputy Minister of Finance in 1992. In that role, he served as a member of the Bank's Board of Directors until 1997.
In 1998, Mr. Dodge was appointed Deputy Minister of Health, a position he held until his appointment as Governor of the Bank of Canada.
The Canadian economy continues to operate above its production capacity, despite some slowing in growth and inflation in the fourth quarter of 2007. Financial conditions have deteriorated since October, leading to tighter credit conditions in industrialized countries.
It has become a tradition that I deliver a speech late in the year on issues related to the financial system. When I say "financial system," I mean financial institutions and markets, together with the clearing and settlement systems through which financial assets flow.
In Canada, we were looking for weaker economic growth in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of 2008, but some strengthening thereafter. As you can see from Table 2, we were expecting continued strong final domestic demand throughout the projection period, but considerably weaker net exports.
Given the Institute's membership and its focus on financial stability, I feel safe in saying that all of us here today watched this summer's turbulence in credit markets with interest, to put it mildly. What began in the spring as a repricing of credit risk turned into dislocations that have yet to fully run their course.
Since the July Monetary Policy Report Update, and against a backdrop of robust global economic expansion and strong commodity prices, the Canadian economy has been stronger than projected. It is now operating further above its production potential than had been previously expected.
The turbulence in financial markets did not come about against a backdrop of economic weakness. Indeed, over the past number of years, the global economy has shown remarkable strength. We were also seeing encouraging signs of growth being spread more evenly.
We have seen a remarkable continuation of robust global growth, fuelled by increases in international trade and facilitated by the continuing evolution and expansion of capital markets. Domestic demand began to grow more strongly in Europe and Asia and to slow in the United States, and this began to ease some of the concerns related to global imbalances that I spoke about during my last visit.
Economic growth and inflation in Canada in the first half of this year have been stronger than was expected in the April Monetary Policy Report. The Bank judges that the economy is now operating further above its production potential than was projected in April.
Over the years, we at the Bank of Canada have learned that the best contribution that monetary policy can make to the economic welfare of Canadians is to keep inflation low, stable, and predictable. We try to keep the annual increase in consumer price inflation at 2 per cent, which is the middle of a 1 to 3 per cent inflation-control range.
For 85 years, the Council has promoted the idea that the United States should take a leading role in addressing global challenges. And it has done so consistently through the years, even during times when isolationism was more fashionable.
We are all interested in seeing the continued development of international capital markets, as part of the advancement of a market-based, liberalized trade and financial regime. Let's remember that an open, market-based economic system is increasingly vital, in a world where change is driven by the development of new technologies and modes of competition; and where adjustments are occurring all the time.
It goes without saying that a sound system of private pensions is important from the perspective of pensioners who rely on a given plan for their retirement income. For firms, a pension plan can help to attract and retain staff, and so the business community also counts on a sound pension system.
Why do I think that such an order is so important? Well, in part it's because history has helped to demonstrate its virtues. But it's also extremely important to bear in mind the context, that is, the world in which we live today. This is a world in which adjustment is perpetual, where change is driven by the development of new technologies, where sectors and nations continually attempt to secure some new advantage. And in this world, price signals from markets help us to understand what adjustments are needed.
In our latest Monetary Policy Report, which we released last Thursday, we noted that Canada's economic growth did indeed slow, but recently, inflation has been higher than expected. After considering the full range of indicators, the Bank now judges that the Canadian economy was operating just above its production capacity in the first quarter of this year.
In our latest Monetary Policy Report, which we released last Thursday, we noted that Canada's economic growth did indeed slow, but recently, inflation has been higher than expected. After considering the full range of indicators, the Bank now judges that the Canadian economy was operating just above its production capacity in the first quarter of this year.
Growth of the Canadian economy has been essentially in line with the Bank's expectations as set out in the January Monetary Policy Report Update. But inflation has been higher than expected. After considering the full range of indicators, the Bank now judges that the Canadian economy was operating just above its production capacity in the first quarter of this year.
In my opinion, much of this performance can be credited to the increasingly widespread acceptance of the need for a liberalized worldwide financial and trade order. Many countries that once closed themselves to the outside world are now actively engaged in the global economy.
Our primary objective at the Bank is to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canadians. Over the years, we have learned that the best contribution that monetary policy can make in this regard is to give Canadians confidence in the future value of their money. We do this by keeping inflation low, stable, and predictable.
Our interest in income trusts relates to the efficient functioning and health of Canada's financial system. A safe and efficient financial system is essential to Canada's economic well-being. The Bank of Canada works with other government agencies, as well as market participants, to promote the safe and efficient functioning of the financial system.
The Bank of Canada has been around for over 70 years. Throughout this period, the Bank has had one over-arching mandate: to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canadians. Over the years, we have learned that the best contribution that monetary policy can make in this regard is to give Canadians confidence in the future value of their money.
The Canadian economy is judged to have been operating at, or just above, its production capacity at the end of 2006, following weaker-than-expected growth in the second half of last year. This slowdown stemmed from reduced demand for Canadian exports—related to weakness in the U.S. automotive and housing sectors—and from the need for Canadian businesses to adjust inventories.
The FSR reports on developments and trends in financial systems here and abroad, summarizes recent research by Bank staff on financial sector policies, and promotes discussion of how to strengthen our financial system. In short, the goal of the FSR is to improve financial system efficiency and stability.
As major producers of commodities, both Canada and Australia rely heavily on international trade for our economic expansion, and we each rely extensively on global capital markets. So, what I would like to talk about first is how we see the global and Canadian economies unfolding and what we might expect to see in the future. Following that, I'll also talk about some of the policies that can best help countries like ours to deal with the challenges of today's global economy, looking at this from both a domestic and an international perspective.
Things have changed somewhat since then. While global economic growth is expected to be a little higher than anticipated last spring, a weaker near-term outlook for the U.S. economy has curbed the near-term prospects for Canadian exports and growth.
How can we develop human capital to its fullest potential, and retain that capital? How can we foster research, innovation, and commercialization in this province? How can we improve Ontario's competitiveness in the global marketplace?
Remarks by David Dodge, Governor of the Bank of Canada, to the Canadian Economics Association
